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Posted

This is merely an attempt to calm a convo. It might be fruitless. This just to demonstrates how multiple things can be simultaneous true and contradictory.

Here are the summarized data which support the NBC News analysis in the video. The analysis in the video helps to connect the dots (which I'm implying).

Tennessee special election - Dec. 2nd, count as of Dec. 7th
District results shown by 5 groups of counties, Davidson (Nashville), Montgomery (Clarksville), South Suburbs (Williamson), West Suburbs (Cheatham+Dickson), and Rural (rest of district).

  • Davidson: 24% of the vote, D56pp margin, ->D19pp shift vs. 2024*
  • Montgomery: 24%, R8, ->D12
  • South Suburbs: 15%, R23, ->D10
  • West Suburbs: 14%, R37, ->D8
  • Rural Counties: 23%, R50, ->D6

How to read: Davidson was 24% of the district-wide vote. In it, the Dem won by 56%-points (pp), 78% vs. 22%. This was a shift in favor of Democrats by 19% vs. 2024 when they won this portion of the county by 37pp, 67% vs. 30%... so the shift, ->D19pp, is the 2025 margin (56pp) less the 2024 margin (37pp).

[think before following links] https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/steve-kornacki-how-democrats-missed-the-mother-of-all-upsets-in-tennessee-253608005609

Posted

I watched the NBC video and even though Kornacki thinks the Dems could have done even better with a different candidate, a 19 point swing towards them speaks for itself.  I dont see much that is contradictory, only the truth that a large swath of the American public now has serious buyer's regret. I'm guessing Trump is not capable of reversing this, but admittedly 11 months is a long time.  

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