fuckholedc
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Posts posted by fuckholedc
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R0 (the reproductive number, the average number of new cases that arise from a single currently infectious person) estimated to be 1.29. Therefore it should be (somewhat easily) stoppable. (Original COVID was about 3, measles is 16-18).
QuoteMonkeypox, a fast-spreading viral zoonosis outside of Africa in May 2022, has scientists on alert. We estimated the reproduction number to be 1.29 (95% CrI: 1.26, 1.33) by aggregating all cases in 70 countries as of July 22, 2022.
[think before following links] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.26.22278042v1
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2 minutes ago, blkoraltm said:
in Amsterdam now. My experience after 2 visits to both Cuckoos Nests and the Sauna.
Folks seem to be more interested in sex at the Cuckoos Nest
Yeah, it can take a little time to warm people up at Sauna Nieuwezijds. It depends, hit and miss like everywhere. For me it was more hit.
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4 hours ago, rawTOP said:
- Guys are seeing OF/JFF models describe what they're going through and urging them to get vaccinated.
Really? Has this begun to happen?
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On 7/25/2022 at 1:42 PM, pozboi said:
Are there any studies on MPx virus's stability outside of a human body? How long does it survive for: hours, days, weeks, months?
I mean how concerned should one be when, say, holding onto the bus handrail after someone with MPx hand lesions?
This source says as long as 15 days. [think before following links] https://sf.gov/information/monkeypox-faq
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8 hours ago, rawfuckr said:
Second death in Spain in Cordoba, Spain
We got a few more details about the 2 deaths. Both were young, this last one 31. Both died due to encefalitis and were in hospital due to monkeypox infection. They are now looking into if encefalitis was caused by MP or was something unrelated.
Encephalitis = brain inflamation
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5 hours ago, EuroMusk76 said:
Thank you for your estimation. You may be able to find more data on MPX ("Affenpocken" in German) on [think before following links] [think before following links] https://survstat.rki.de/Content/Query/Main.aspx
There you can customise your query down to state (e.g. Berlin) or even county level (e.g. City of Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg), by week of notification and so on.
It's a bit fiddly to use but a valuable source of information.
Thanks!
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13 hours ago, muscmtl said:
So 2 doses or 1 ?
Ultimately two doses but currently many health providers are focusing on one dose for now and pushing the second dose down the road by several months or up to two years (the recommendation of the Bavarian Nordic manufacturer of Jynneos) because there is a shortage of vaccine.
I have read that some providers are exploring the possibility that people > 50 might only receive one single vaccine as a booster. This will vary by country. The US and the UK stopped smallpox vaccination in 1972 and 1971 respectively. Germany OTOH stopped in 1976 and East Germany stopped in 1980. So in Germany the issue would be that people in their early 40's could in fact have some protection from the smallpox vaccine.
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7 hours ago, versPigaNdP said:
did you do a series of non-linear differential equations to determine your information? vough cough cough
No. This is not a SIR or variation model (I'm not modeling the dynamics of the outbreak itself with this). This is just taking the cumulative cases and fitting it to an exponential function (in this case a power function). That is *WRONG* but an adequate/even good estimate for the first stage of the epidemic (before the cases peak). A better estimate for this would be to induce a logistic function *BUT* that should only really be done when it is clear that the epidemic is really peaking (COVID showed us that our behavior created 6 separate peaks so far so we shouldn't jump the gun just because it looks like an epidemic is over).
I have seen that people are not provided math tools to help protect themselves during epidemics (apparently even intelligent people [Fauci for example] think that math models are too much for people). Nonetheless I have seen even doctors who should know better make serious math errors over time and unfortunately many Gay men made serious errors wrt AIDS transmission and risk in public forums in the past.
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I induced a basic exponential function for monkeypox data from Germany (I cannot find historical data for Berlin itself) without the wild assumptions I had made prior to my trip to Montreal. Currently most of the monkeypox cases are occurring in Berlin but this will change if the outbreak isn't contained so currently this function is basically a Berlin function.
The function is not bad and may indicate that inoculations and other measures are in fact having an effect. The question will be is that is sufficient.
So the function is y = 0.5381741*x^2.000014 where x is days since May 19, 2022 (May 19 is day 1).
This indicates that in two weeks cumulative monkeypox cases will be 3798 which would be an additional 1258. These new cases are currently locked in because the incubation period is approx. 2 weeks. The current doubling period is approx. 27 days and appears to be getting longer. If this holds up *AND* if the doubling period continues to lengthen then the outbreak will be corralled in Germany.
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[think before following links] https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk1688
QuoteWe discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log10 increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV—CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences—is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.
Generally this strain is estimated to proceed to full-blown AIDS in two years.
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Pretty much proves my usual statement that the USA is a complete fuck-up country (which doctors are increasingly saying themselves wrt deficits in the organization of public health)
Monkeypox outbreak in U.S. is bigger than the CDC reports. Testing is 'abysmal'
June 25, 2022
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San Francisco declares an emergency to help the city deal with monkeypox spread
QuoteThe mayor of San Francisco [Mayor London Breed] announced a legal state of emergency Thursday over the growing number of monkeypox cases, allowing officials to mobilize personnel and resources and cut through red tape to get ahead of a public health crisis reminiscent of the AIDS epidemic that devastated the city.
The declaration, which takes effect Monday, was welcomed by gay advocates who have grown increasingly frustrated by what they called San Francisco's lackluster response to a virus that so far has affected primarily men who have sex with men, although anyone can get infected.
The city has 261 cases, out of about 800 in California and 4,600 nationwide, according to the San Francisco Department of Public Health. A national shortage of vaccine has resulted in people waiting in line for hours for scarce doses, often to be turned away when the shots run out.
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San Francisco shut down its primary monkeypox vaccination clinic earlier this week after it ran out of doses, saying it had only received 7,800 doses of a requested 35,000.
"San Francisco was at the forefront of the public health responses to HIV and COVID-19, and we will be at the forefront when it comes to monkeypox," said state Sen. Scott Wiener, a Democrat who represents San Francisco. "We can't and won't leave the LGTBQ community out to dry."
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A doctor in Nigeria tried to warn the world that monkeypox had become a global threat
QuoteThe story actually starts five years ago with a doctor named Dimie Ogoina. Back in 2017, he saw what's perhaps the most important patient of his career.
DIMIE OGOINA: They brought my attention to a young boy.
DOUCLEFF: An 11-year-old boy with a very strange rash that looked like blisters.
QuoteSo Ogoina tested the boy, and he was right - monkeypox. At the time, Ogoina thought that this monkeypox outbreak would act the way it always had, the way it had been described in textbooks and scientific papers since the 1970s. That is, the virus came from an animal, like a rodent or a monkey.
QuoteOUCLEFF: And that the virus doesn't spread very easily between people because it's not very contagious, especially between healthy adults.
OGOINA: It affects mainly children.
DOUCLEFF: Because when they're playing outside, they often come into contact with animals. So previous outbreaks were small, only a few dozen cases in rural areas. And Ogoina and other doctors thought that this outbreak back in 2017 would be the same.
OGOINA: So we felt, OK, could be the regular monkeypox that we know has been described in the center Africa.
DOUCLEFF: But a few weeks later, Ogoina started to become concerned. The outbreak began to grow very rapidly. Cases popped up not just near this boy but all over.
OGOINA: We are seeing cases just suddenly appearing across the country.
DOUCLEFF: The virus seemed to be spreading further and faster than expected. And it wasn't kids getting infected but rather men in their 20s and 30s.
QuoteDOUCLEFF: Ogoina started to investigate these patients more and found that many of them had high-risk sexual behaviors - multiple partners, sex with prostitutes. Ogoina started to realize something huge - that the virus had changed, and for the first time, it was starting to spread through sexual contact.
QuoteDOUCLEFF: Ogoina knew these findings had massive implications. It meant the virus no longer needed to jump from an animal. Instead, it could now easily jump from human to human, and that meant the current outbreak in Nigeria would be extremely difficult to stop. It meant monkeypox was no longer just a threat to communities in West Africa but a threat to the world. So Ogoina tried to warn Nigerian health officials years ago. They wouldn't listen. At an international meeting, he tried to bring up the possibility of sexual transmission. Somebody told him to be quiet.
QuoteDOUCLEFF: For the first time in history, monkeypox is spreading across the world - and just as Ogoina predicted, through sexual contact.
KHALID: All right. Michaeleen, I mean, that, to me, is a wild backstory - this scientist who had all this important information, but he could not get anyone to pay attention to it. I mean, it's really mind-boggling.
DOUCLEFF: Yeah. You know, in fact, Ogoina's insights and knowledge go even further. He says the outbreak in Nigeria back in 2017 never actually stopped. Health officials just stopped looking for cases and the outbreak went underground. And eventually, it actually turned into this huge international outbreak we're fighting right now.
KHALID: So you're saying that the outbreak today is, in fact, the very same one that was in Nigeria back in 2017? How do we know that?
DOUCLEFF: Yeah. You know, there's new genetic evidence that hasn't been published yet showing that this outbreak - this international outbreak we have - started in Nigeria way back even years before this little boy showed up in Ogoina's office. Michael Worobey is studying this question. He's an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona. He says the data are really indisputable.
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Additionally 10% of people who contract monkeypox have been admitted to the hospital for pain management (Sweden is reporting 15% for pain management).
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8 minutes ago, fuckholedc said:
There have actually been 5 deaths attributed to the current monkeypox outbreak in the West (and 70, likely an undercount, in Africa): - well actually this report is saying that the five deaths *WERE IN FACT* in African countries. Perhaps I have been misreading ....
Looks like WHO and other reporting agencies are making a difference between monkeypox year to date and the specific current outbreak which started as a "separate" (distinguishable) health phenomenon circa May, 2022.
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1 minute ago, 120DaysofSodom said:
I woke up just a bit ago feeling like poop. Feverish, arm is sore, headache. Groggy. Maybe just because I havent had my 10 cups of coffee yet as is my custom. My butt hurts too because I got my Cabenuva injections a day ago lol
A guy I was with in Montreal mentioned that a week or two after his monkeypox inoculation, the inoculation site got hard and swelled up a bit and was a bit sore. I'm one week in and haven't experienced anything (but usually don't have the reactions to inoculations that lots of people report).
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There have actually been 5 deaths attributed to the current monkeypox outbreak in the West (and 70, likely an undercount, in Africa): - well actually this report is saying that the five deaths *WERE IN FACT* in African countries. Perhaps I have been misreading ....
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6 hours ago, rawTOP said:
Here's another thought…
If it's super painful, and especially painful to the touch, then how do guys with MPX transmit it sexually? Wouldn't sex be super painful? OK, maybe the first day or two when the lesions are small they could have sex. But that doesn't explain the huge levels of transmission that we're seeing.
There's a period where people get a rash that they might not even notice. They are contagious at that point, well before the development of vesicles. Some people only get the rash.
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On 5/26/2022 at 5:26 PM, BottomSlut26 said:
I’m a 26 year old submissive bottom living in DC (Rockville). Popped my Cherry from 2 guys I met on GRINDR and the second they pumped the loads in I was addicted.
Just got on Prep and want to give into my urges and become a total cumdump. Can’t resist it any longer.
Is there a member here that lives in the DMV that would be interested in whoring me out or that has a few daddies that need to be worshipped? Really wanting to become a total whore. Please help.
There used to be a few masters in DC like that but the couple I knew of left. DC really should have it's own *ACTIVE* cumdump network but the flip side to DC itself is that many/most people want to hide their piggyness (really, really hide it) so it has been difficult to get much organized publicly. There could still be actual whore stables in DC but they aren't public about it.
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Hepatitis B. I just got chlamydia for the first time after the BiohazardMens Party in Berlin in April. I've been amazingly lucky that I've had very few STD's.
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On 7/21/2022 at 11:11 AM, DesperateSoftBoy said:
Hi! So recently I've become 18 and was wondering how to start pigging out. I'm still a virgin but I know I'm an absolutely bottom especially around heavier men. Being on this site and going through all the post always makes me to reenact half your guy's stories. But to cut to the chase I've been wondering where to start maybe nothing too rough for a first time but still enough to get hooked up on dick for the rest of my life. All advise I'll take into consideration thanks!!!
Learn to clean out, get on PrEP and start taking dick. Find out how much dick you can take now by using a few smaller size butt plugs and dildos working their way up in size and work up from there. You are just outside of Portland and I'm pretty sure there is a bathhouse there. Go check it out. And in Seattle and Vancouver, Canada. Plan a trip to LA and Palm Springs. Find out if you like being a cumdump* by seeing if you like taking dick after dick or if you like getting fucked and then waiting a while before you get fucked again or if you like orgy situations more. And be very careful with the club drugs. But it's mostly a matter of practice taking dick and paying attention to what your body is telling you.
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*I found out that I liked being a cumdump because I fantasized about it and then, at a White Party in Palm Springs I climbed into a fuck box (a rectangular prism set in a wall with an opening - the rectangle was about 8 to 10 feet long - you crawl in and there is enough room in the back to wait ass up in doggy or to get on your back with your heels on the ceiling and ass available (I did that) - then guys climb in and fuck you.
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On 7/20/2022 at 6:05 PM, astrongoralfixatio said:
Does the club ever stop admitting people or reach capacity?
They seem to admit people all night
At some places they stop admitting people if they get low on lockers. This must have happened at some time in Club Philly's existence but I have never seen it. Cumunion at Club Philly is technically over around 4 am but I have seen it go later.
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29 minutes ago, fuckholedc said:
Because it seems to me that 20% of Berlin men are Gay (it's definitely more that 10%). But a much smaller % are piggy. It's true I made that up but this is also a worst case back of the envelope estimate.
Well one article discussing HIV in Germany puts the % of MSM between 20 and 59 at 2.5% or 80,000 men. [think before following links] [think before following links] https://magazin.hiv/magazin/neuigkeiten/mediathek-berliner-forscher-entwickeln-schatzverfahren-10-prozent-der-schwulen-grosstadter-hiv-positiv/
Ill look at the actual data for Berlin after I return.
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1 hour ago, BootmanLA said:
Where did you get the statistic that 20% of people in Berlin are "gay males"? Given that male/female ratios in a given geographic area tend to be roughly 50/50, that would mean roughly 2 out of 5 men are gay. Seriously?
Because it seems to me that 20% of Berlin men are Gay (it's definitely more that 10%). But a much smaller % are piggy. It's true I made that up but this is also a worst case back of the envelope estimate.
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