Trump's Promises

[Pozzible]

29 minutes ago, tobetrained said:

Love it or hate it, no one has figured out a better way than market-driven economies. And many have tried and failed.

Remember, the premiums being discussed will be paid by us regardless -- whether through increases premiums and co-pays, as Democrats argue, or by federal taxes and increased debt, as Democrats try to get us to ignore.

As long as we’re discussing healthcare, I strenuously disagree. Every country in the developed world has figured out how to provide universal healthcare. We certainly have terrific healthcare in the USA - for those of us who can afford it. The ACA, along with subsidized premiums, has extended very basic healthcare to a much greater percentage of our population than before. However, we pay much more per capita than any other country for healthcare. 

I’m don’t have the time right now to get into the weeds, but I’m sure you’ll have response. Then I’ll gladly provide rebuttal.

[Pozzible]

[hntnhole]

According to the googler, the population of Norway is around 5.5 million, while the population of the US is around 340 million. 

That would suggest that a much greater percentage of the population in the US is (at least at present) not productive relative to the population than in Norway.  In your view, why would that be the case (if it is)?  

Some would say the US has far more indolent citizens than your fine country, but one of the aggravating factors is the tremendous variance of cultures in the US.  Do you know what the percentage is of recent (say, within 40, 50 years) of immigrants (non native-born Norwegians) that are contributing members of society (meaning, working, paying taxes, etc).?   

More bluntly, in the US there may well be a greater percentage of citizens who, for one reason or another, are not contributing members, but rather immigrants that have come to the US to escape more egregious strictures in their native countries, and thus would wind up in the cycle of recurring hardship.  

Edited 4 hours ago by hntnhole
clarity

[viking8x6]

11 minutes ago, hntnhole said:

According to the googler, the population of Norway is around 5.5 million, while the population of the US is around 340 million. 

That would suggest that a much greater percentage of the population in the US is (at least at present) not productive relative to the population than in Norway.  In your view, why would that be the case (if it is)? 

The data in the chart that @Pozzible posted, plus the population numbers, do not by themselves lead to the conclusion you have drawn here, so far as I can tell. What other assumptions have you used, or what is your logic in concluding it?

[hntnhole]

Thanks for that question.  

Given that the US has been seen (by many citizens of other nations) as the place to relocate to (if & when things go south in their native countries), the US appears to be the "default" location by virtue of our history in welcoming all peoples to our shores. 

The underlying misperception might be that everything is wonderful here, with nothing but largess to spread around, and those that created that wealth (over generations) are only too happy to share it.  That perception goes against one of the more regrettable human characteristics, namely selfishness vs generosity. 

There's a fine point to be considered, namely generosity is easily extended when the recipients adopt US values, meaning adding to the society, as opposed to detracting from it.  There may be a perception among some US citizens of several generations that there are too many non-contributing immigrants, but I believe that perception is a false impression.  

[tobetrained]

@Pozzible First let's do a term check: I said market-driven economy and not capitalism (fettered or not). Norway, for instance, has a market-driven economy.

Unfortunately, in a quick check there are a lot of wrong or misleading facts in the Norway example. For instance, "no security for seniors" -- we have both Social Security and Medicare as support programs. "No paid vacation/parental leave" this isn't true. The tax rate is misleading. And, on healthcare, it fails to mention the horrible regulation on salaries. GP salaries in the US are $225-250k/yr and Norway that's $130k/yr. Nurses in the US $75k/yr (non-specialized) with that being $58k in Norway. The AMA and nurses union might have an issue??

On taxes, Norway has a flat 22% "federal" tax vs. our progressive system which translates to 13% for the nurse's salary of $58k. In Norway, there are also social programs tax (8%) and municipal taxes bring the payroll taxes to >40%. In the US, with state and local taxes as well as Social Security and Medicare, we cap out between 21% (no state tax: TX, WA, etc) and 30% (CA, NY/NYC, etc).

On top of that, they have a flat 25% VAT while our sales tax range from 0% to 10%. This means, on average, everything costs 20% more in Norway than the US and translates to thousands more per year -- to pay for social programs.

Another interest note: part of their healthcare system is paid oil and gas production/sales, The Oil Fund. As a centrist myself, I would LOVE to see progressives sit down and allow more drilling and extraction of resources to PAY for the services they want and conservatives yield to the latter to allow the former -- if ONLY to see it happen.

Separately, but on that note, it's important to remember that we have 14 million illegal immigrants in the US. That's almost THREE TIMES the size of Norway's population of 5.3 million. Norway has a fraction of 1% in their population.

On the former comment, re: ranking, I assume you mean from The Commonwealth Fund? It's fairly well commented on, anyway. They're fairly selective in their metrics, designed to promote small-nation/state systems. For instance, they don't have a metric to account for the volume of non-tax paying population nor the volume of rural space and population relative to care. With these, the US would move much higher on the list.

Their method can be very misleading too. Let's say your scoring something on a scale between 0 and 100. The measured values range from 80 to 90. In functional / practical terms, there little or no real difference. But they show the data in way to dramatically expand the differences. I asked an AI tool to offer a list of 10 items to demonstrate one of their charts: the estimated possible results were 80,82, 83, 84.5, 85,86,87,88,88. The US, in the Commonwealth's data could be the 80 and look 3 deviations below average -- terrible -- but, in practice, the difference of 80 vs the average 84.5 is minimal.

But here's an NBC News link to the trouble with UK's NHS. Nothing is perfect. And almost 10% of the UK use private insurance instead -- so paying twice, re: taxes for NHS and incremental coverage for private care. For myself, as a centrist, I don't argue for or against. I expect politicians to PAY for their ideas or they're no ideas at all. Increased debt is not paying for anything.

[think before following links] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/europe/uks-public-health-service-crisis-threatening-institution-heart-british-rcna228773

p.s. I learned to change text color!

[tobetrained]

@hntnhole snippet:

3 hours ago, hntnhole said:

That would suggest that a much greater percentage of the population in the US is (at least at present) not productive relative to the population than in Norway.  In your view, why would that be the case (if it is)?  

I asked an AI tool to do this math for the US population and got wildly different answers based on how I asked the question. Many times I got different answers asking the same question in a new browser session. The following is a rough aggregate summary of 15 AI results for Federal payroll taxes which sources irs.gov and taxpolicycenter.org based on 2021 data:

• US citizens: $900bil to $1.4tri in federal payroll taxes
• Lawful permanent residents (incl. green card): $200-$300bil
• Non-citizen visa holders: $50-$100bil
• Undocumented: $10-$60bil

It's very difficult to breakdown corporate taxes. State and local payroll taxes as well as sales tax would be additional. 

I only offer as a broad guide but nothing determinative.

[tobetrained]

In doing some more direct checking, I believe the high estimate for "Undocumented" in my previous post for payroll taxes are using sources, e.g. tax policy center, which report on aggregate federal state and local payroll taxes, sales tax, and other items as an aggregate (not just federal payroll) but AI doesn't interpret that nuance.

If someone has a direct report from IRS, happy to have these last two posts deleted or x'd out.