Trump's Promises

[Pozzible]

29 minutes ago, tobetrained said:

Love it or hate it, no one has figured out a better way than market-driven economies. And many have tried and failed.

Remember, the premiums being discussed will be paid by us regardless -- whether through increases premiums and co-pays, as Democrats argue, or by federal taxes and increased debt, as Democrats try to get us to ignore.

As long as we’re discussing healthcare, I strenuously disagree. Every country in the developed world has figured out how to provide universal healthcare. We certainly have terrific healthcare in the USA - for those of us who can afford it. The ACA, along with subsidized premiums, has extended very basic healthcare to a much greater percentage of our population than before. However, we pay much more per capita than any other country for healthcare. 

I’m don’t have the time right now to get into the weeds, but I’m sure you’ll have response. Then I’ll gladly provide rebuttal.

[Pozzible]

[hntnhole]

According to the googler, the population of Norway is around 5.5 million, while the population of the US is around 340 million. 

That would suggest that a much greater percentage of the population in the US is (at least at present) not productive relative to the population than in Norway.  In your view, why would that be the case (if it is)?  

Some would say the US has far more indolent citizens than your fine country, but one of the aggravating factors is the tremendous variance of cultures in the US.  Do you know what the percentage is of recent (say, within 40, 50 years) of immigrants (non native-born Norwegians) that are contributing members of society (meaning, working, paying taxes, etc).?   

More bluntly, in the US there may well be a greater percentage of citizens who, for one reason or another, are not contributing members, but rather immigrants that have come to the US to escape more egregious strictures in their native countries, and thus would wind up in the cycle of recurring hardship.  

Edited yesterday at 06:48 PM by hntnhole
clarity

[viking8x6]

11 minutes ago, hntnhole said:

According to the googler, the population of Norway is around 5.5 million, while the population of the US is around 340 million. 

That would suggest that a much greater percentage of the population in the US is (at least at present) not productive relative to the population than in Norway.  In your view, why would that be the case (if it is)? 

The data in the chart that @Pozzible posted, plus the population numbers, do not by themselves lead to the conclusion you have drawn here, so far as I can tell. What other assumptions have you used, or what is your logic in concluding it?

[hntnhole]

Thanks for that question.  

Given that the US has been seen (by many citizens of other nations) as the place to relocate to (if & when things go south in their native countries), the US appears to be the "default" location by virtue of our history in welcoming all peoples to our shores. 

The underlying misperception might be that everything is wonderful here, with nothing but largess to spread around, and those that created that wealth (over generations) are only too happy to share it.  That perception goes against one of the more regrettable human characteristics, namely selfishness vs generosity. 

There's a fine point to be considered, namely generosity is easily extended when the recipients adopt US values, meaning adding to the society, as opposed to detracting from it.  There may be a perception among some US citizens of several generations that there are too many non-contributing immigrants, but I believe that perception is a false impression.  

[tobetrained]

@Pozzible First let's do a term check: I said market-driven economy and not capitalism (fettered or not). Norway, for instance, has a market-driven economy.

Unfortunately, in a quick check there are a lot of wrong or misleading facts in the Norway example. For instance, "no security for seniors" -- we have both Social Security and Medicare as support programs. "No paid vacation/parental leave" this isn't true. The tax rate is misleading. And, on healthcare, it fails to mention the horrible regulation on salaries. GP salaries in the US are $225-250k/yr and Norway that's $130k/yr. Nurses in the US $75k/yr (non-specialized) with that being $58k in Norway. The AMA and nurses union might have an issue??

On taxes, Norway has a flat 22% "federal" tax vs. our progressive system which translates to 13% for the nurse's salary of $58k. In Norway, there are also social programs tax (8%) and municipal taxes bring the payroll taxes to >40%. In the US, with state and local taxes as well as Social Security and Medicare, we cap out between 21% (no state tax: TX, WA, etc) and 30% (CA, NY/NYC, etc).

On top of that, they have a flat 25% VAT while our sales tax range from 0% to 10%. This means, on average, everything costs 20% more in Norway than the US and translates to thousands more per year -- to pay for social programs.

Another interest note: part of their healthcare system is paid oil and gas production/sales, The Oil Fund. As a centrist myself, I would LOVE to see progressives sit down and allow more drilling and extraction of resources to PAY for the services they want and conservatives yield to the latter to allow the former -- if ONLY to see it happen.

Separately, but on that note, it's important to remember that we have 14 million illegal immigrants in the US. That's almost THREE TIMES the size of Norway's population of 5.3 million. Norway has a fraction of 1% in their population.

On the former comment, re: ranking, I assume you mean from The Commonwealth Fund? It's fairly well commented on, anyway. They're fairly selective in their metrics, designed to promote small-nation/state systems. For instance, they don't have a metric to account for the volume of non-tax paying population nor the volume of rural space and population relative to care. With these, the US would move much higher on the list.

Their method can be very misleading too. Let's say your scoring something on a scale between 0 and 100. The measured values range from 80 to 90. In functional / practical terms, there little or no real difference. But they show the data in way to dramatically expand the differences. I asked an AI tool to offer a list of 10 items to demonstrate one of their charts: the estimated possible results were 80,82, 83, 84.5, 85,86,87,88,88. The US, in the Commonwealth's data could be the 80 and look 3 deviations below average -- terrible -- but, in practice, the difference of 80 vs the average 84.5 is minimal.

But here's an NBC News link to the trouble with UK's NHS. Nothing is perfect. And almost 10% of the UK use private insurance instead -- so paying twice, re: taxes for NHS and incremental coverage for private care. For myself, as a centrist, I don't argue for or against. I expect politicians to PAY for their ideas or they're no ideas at all. Increased debt is not paying for anything.

[think before following links] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/europe/uks-public-health-service-crisis-threatening-institution-heart-british-rcna228773

p.s. I learned to change text color!

[tobetrained]

@hntnhole snippet:

3 hours ago, hntnhole said:

That would suggest that a much greater percentage of the population in the US is (at least at present) not productive relative to the population than in Norway.  In your view, why would that be the case (if it is)?  

I asked an AI tool to do this math for the US population and got wildly different answers based on how I asked the question. Many times I got different answers asking the same question in a new browser session. The following is a rough aggregate summary of 15 AI results for Federal payroll taxes which sources irs.gov and taxpolicycenter.org based on 2021 data:

• US citizens: $900bil to $1.4tri in federal payroll taxes
• Lawful permanent residents (incl. green card): $200-$300bil
• Non-citizen visa holders: $50-$100bil
• Undocumented: $10-$60bil

It's very difficult to breakdown corporate taxes. State and local payroll taxes as well as sales tax would be additional. 

I only offer as a broad guide but nothing determinative.

[tobetrained]

In doing some more direct checking, I believe the high estimate for "Undocumented" in my previous post for payroll taxes are using sources, e.g. tax policy center, which report on aggregate federal state and local payroll taxes, sales tax, and other items as an aggregate (not just federal payroll) but AI doesn't interpret that nuance.

If someone has a direct report from IRS, happy to have these last two posts deleted or x'd out.

[Pozzible]

It was ill-considered - and frankly, lazy - for me to post that meme. That said, I personally believe the gist of it was on the right track.

Considering the size and strength of the US economy, it’s mind-boggling that we don’t guarantee basic healthcare to everyone. Every, single country in the world that we would want to compare ourselves to, or consider ourselves superior to, has figured out a way to do it.  We can quibble about marginal tax rates, indolent members of society, whatever you like. The fact that we don’t ensure all Americans ALL basic needs is totally embarrassing to me. 

It’s not that you guys don’t bring up good points. You do. But today, in particular, I just can’t. We’re watching everything fall apart - or more accurately, be demolished - right before our eyes. The king has soared over our heads to take a dump on the American public. He’s extorting universities, media companies, law firms, and entire countries to get his way. He’s rounding up hard-working people and incarcerating them without due process. And now, we’ve seen him both symbolically and literally take a backhoe to the White House. But we can eat cake.

😢 

[hntnhole]

19 hours ago, tobetrained said:

I only offer as a broad guide but nothing determinative.

Well, maybe it's time for AI to head over to the garage for tune-up?  The results seem a bit unreliable 🙄

 

13 hours ago, Pozzible said:

literally take a backhoe to the White House

Apparently, he thinks the White House belongs to him personally, and always will.  However, what can be built up can also be torn down.  Interestingly, when FDR initially began the East wing, apparently it was to cover up the existence of a bomb shelter beneath it.  

I can't help but wonder what use for that bomb shelter (if it's still there) we can come up with, when the Grifter-in-Chief is no more ..... 

[tobetrained]

15 hours ago, Pozzible said:

Considering the size and strength of the US economy, it’s mind-boggling that we don’t guarantee basic healthcare to everyone. Every, single country in the world that we would want to compare ourselves to, or consider ourselves superior to, has figured out a way to do it.

@Pozzible I really want to push on this point and then I'll drop it, the "figured out a way to do it." That's not true.

I'll take my secondary point first. Economic freedom and mobility. In all European countries salaries for doctors and nurses are regulated. There's no way to make your own financial progress in society -- you can't find a new employer to compete for a better salary.

Due to this issue, for example, in Germany, 50% of native Germans trained in Germany as doctors no longer practice in the country after 10 years - this is an average example Europe. 10% to 15% burn-out (average). But ~25% have left for reasons of economic mobility and freedom, coming to the US, East Asian, or Middle East markets to get a competitive salary. In the US, for reference, 75%+ of US born/trained doctors still practice in the US after 10 years with similar burn-out levels.

Now this would be OK if it weren't for the primary issue, the wages being paid. As implied in the German doctor example, wages are relatively low for doctors compared to the developed world and cost-of-living. As noted yesterday, doctors in Norway take a 40% hit in (regulated) salary relative to the US (non-regulated) salary.

But the worst is the nurses. Here is a EuroNews article -- a couple years back -- re: Nurse wages in Europe.

[think before following links] https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/12/14/nurses-salaries-across-europe-which-countries-have-the-highest-and-lowest-wages

Nurses are poorly paid across Europe and regulated to be so. Excluding Luxembourg -- do to very high cost of living issues -- The US would be the highest on that list at over 80k Euros/yr salary (average of specialized and non-specialized).

Side note: This gets back to the Commonwealth Fund report you referenced, @Pozzible, where the US was 10th out 10 of developed countries. They don't include economic mobility nor salary level variables. If those four variables were included with the other 10 in their data, the US would be top 5 overall.

But back to nurses, in the UK it's so bad nurses are paid just above poverty at 41k Euros/$45k US per yr -- just over half of what US nurses make.

So my point: in order to get this ideological universal healthcare program working, doctors and nurses have effectively been told, "your lose." As such, these should not be consider programs which "have been figured out." It's far from that. For myself, I don't accept -- as fair collateral damage -- poor wages for care providers (esp. nurses).

In a free society, people should have economic freedom. At least, they should not be told they're near worthless -- like nurses in the UK.

The last thing I'd ask you to reconsider when saying these programs "work" is the backdrop of racism in all of this. Native (white) populations in these countries no longer take these positions in (relatively) large portion -- due to low wages. These countries are stressed and bring in foreign workers to fill positions -- usually of darker skin -- at these low wages. This makes it easier for them to ignore the salary problem while plodding along. Systemic racism is not a conservative thing alone.

[tobetrained]

And, AND‼️, if we had universal healthcare as a government program... I hope all supporters of this realize Donald Trump would be running it with RFK, Jr as his number 2, as HHS sec (if that's still the dept name).

Like the filibuster argument, it really is careful what you wish for.

And, unlike the Post Office, there's nowhere near enough in revenue streams to keep such a program operating during a shutdown forever.

[tobetrained]

@hntnhole and co, re: undocumented immigrant tasxes

I hate bad data "out there." I think the Obama admin stopped reporting some of these details so they weren't politicized.

There are two groups which estimate such taxes: Tax Policy Center (left leaning) and a more politically neutral group American Immigrant Council. They report combined employee, employer, and consumption (sales) taxes as $96b and $90b, respectively (latest).

Of that, $15-$20 billion is federal income tax paid by employee. $35-$40 billion is federal payroll tax by employer (Social Security, Medicare,etc). The rest is state and local income tax and sales taxes.

The issue is that income tax is so much lower than payroll as, overall across all workers, 88% comes from income tax. The later is mainly the 7%-ish (of income) to those listed social programs.

The issue, and we don't know how much:

• how much are these low-income earners reasonably deducting to bring down income tax to low rates
• how many of the workers are simply not paying income tax while their employer submits the appropriate payroll tax

Both occur. I don't think we'll be finding out soon.