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On 8/12/2021 at 8:25 PM, subBottomKink said:

I'm in Ireland, and we currently have a huge amount of cases and hospital numbers are rising, but we have almost 80% of adults fully vaccinated, and 90% have their first dose. 

This tells you that something is really wrong - at 80% of the population vaccinated we should see a sharp decline in cases - basically plunging into next to nothing.  However this is apparently not what we see (I'll have to look at the reported statistics for Ireland but the fact that such a large percentage of the population is vaccinated AND there are still a large number of cases would normally be utterly contradictory).  Basically at 60% of the population vaccinated we should see a sharp decline in symptomatic cases.  This has been a general rule of thumb for all previous epidemics/pandemics.  (everything I wrote above is basic, entry level, 101, biostatistics - COVID19 is rewriting the textbooks with this behavior)

It's not clear how these two facts can co-exist.  One explanation is that the vaccines are far less effective than reported - but actually we can control outbreaks with vaccines that are "underpowered" - this is the general case with flu vaccines.

In a backward place like the USA with a tremendous pool of people who refuse to get vaccinated this fact can be overlooked (since we are hovering at 60% of the population vaccinated one could say that they might expect cases to begin to plummet and explain away the 60% limit on the basis of the massive infectiousness of COVID19 - but in places where substantially more than 60% of the population is fully vaccinated AND one does not see cases plummeting - then we know that something is off.  

Have Irish epidemiologists addressed this exact question?

 

  • 3 weeks later...

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