So, the ballots are set

[BootmanLA]

Unless President Biden does a complete 180 degree turn and withdraws from the race - something I do not want and something I do not believe he will do - the "top line" of the presidential ballot has been set: Biden and Harris vs. Trump and Vance.

I do not think the selection of J.D. Vance will move many wavering Biden votes into the Trump column. Vance has been - and will be broadly painted as - an opportunist, someone who was loudly opposed to Trump until he decided to seek electoral office himself, at which time he reversed himself, declared he was a True Believer, and defended Trump at every turn. One might question as to whether Putin et al. have something on him, given how hard he's been pushing to let Russia just take Ukraine, and that, of course, makes one question the degree to which Trump is being manipulated by Russia. Anyone who doubts that Viktor Orban's visit to Mar-a-Lago had everything to do with delivering a message from Putin should probably not make complex decisions, like where to eat lunch or whether tying one's shoes is a good idea. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that the message included an endorsement of Vance as Putin-approved.

That's the good news. The better news is that Vance is unlikely to move many wavering Republican votes more solidly into Trump's column, either.  In fact, Trump was to some degree in a bind in choosing a vice-president: anyone who could expand his base into people who would otherwise go for Biden would be viewed as suspect by the MAGA faithful. He had to pick someone they approved of, wholeheartedly, and while that's great for placating the white male base of the party, it doesn't go very far to expand the appeal of the ticket.

And I think that's a win, if not a huge one, for Biden's camp. For all intents and purposes, now, this race is largely a re-run of the 2020 race, with a somewhat louder and more enthusiastic GOP VP candidate than Pence was. The people involved aren't going to shift voters from one side to the other. What remains, then, is turnout.

Oh, and the electorate. In four years' time, a lot of new voters became eligible (and youth vote skews Democratic) while a lot of older people died, perhaps more than would normally be the case thanks to Covid-19. Given that older voters tend to skew Republican, that may well have eaten into their numbers in some places.

The flip side of change is the shift in the electoral college after the 2020 census. Texas gained 2 votes, and Florida and Montana each gained one. The only red states to lose a vote were Ohio and West Virginia, meaning the GOP is up 2 EV's before the first vote is cast, assuming that no state flips. Biden got 306 votes last time, meaning he'd be at 304 if nothing changed.

That gives him 34 votes he could lose and still retain the presidency. These are the ones that (at present) seem closest to flipping to Trump, with the number of EV's in each:

Georgia -16
Michigan -15
Pennsylvania -19
Wisconsin -10
Arizona -11
Nevada -6

Another wrinkle is that North Carolina, which Trump won last time, is still a battleground state, and it has 16 EV's. So if it were to flip Blue, while Georgia went Red, that would be no net change in votes. Or if Biden carried it, he could lose both Wisconsin and Nevada and still have no net change in votes.

But assuming nothing new flips to Biden, that means losing any two of the "larger" states (GA/MI/PA) and any ONE of the smaller ones (WI/AZ/NV) would flip the election to Trump. Conversely, as long as he holds two of the three largest (or one plus picking up NC) and any one of the three smaller ones, Biden gets re-elected.

So it's not as dire as some pundits would have us believe - and they want us to, of course, because the more of a horse race it appears to be, the more people pay attention to their dire predictions. It's still possible Trump wins - but he's got some heavy lifting to do. 
 

[topblkmale]

Landslide

 

No Covid

No mail-in voting

 

Edited July 15 by topblkmale

[PozBearWI]

@BootmanLA  Obviously this is speculation, but something in me believes Joe has reviewed the tapes and realizes how horribly he did.  But to step out without a plan in place isn't something I would ever envision him doing.  Thus, I imagine he and the D party are working behind the scenes to work out the next act.  Perhaps a Harris/Kelly ticket which would check a lot of boxes.  Biden could open the convention by pulling out of the race with a Harris/Kelly (as in astronaut Mark Kelly) ticket.  

What I don't want to see is all this played out as the media does so horribly.  Just make a choice, announce and go.  

[BlueSaphir]

Democratic Party had to work fiercely and diligently of to what are at stake of our rights in peril. I’m rooting it another year favoring democratic. 

[BootmanLA]

On 7/16/2024 at 7:28 AM, PozBearWI said:

@BootmanLA  Obviously this is speculation, but something in me believes Joe has reviewed the tapes and realizes how horribly he did.  But to step out without a plan in place isn't something I would ever envision him doing.  Thus, I imagine he and the D party are working behind the scenes to work out the next act.  Perhaps a Harris/Kelly ticket which would check a lot of boxes.  Biden could open the convention by pulling out of the race with a Harris/Kelly (as in astronaut Mark Kelly) ticket.  

What I don't want to see is all this played out as the media does so horribly.  Just make a choice, announce and go.  

If such a ticket were announced, of course I'd support it. As I've said, I will vote for the Democratic ticket over the Republican one regardless of who the candidates are at this point.

Biden has publicly acknowledged how poorly he did in the debate. He also then gave a rousing speech a few days later that reminded me of his best days in the 2020 race.

One reason I don't think he will withdraw is that most of the proposals being floated to replace him do not involve Harris, and he's smart enough to know that dumping the first black Vice President (and the first woman vice president) will go over like a lead balloon. Every serious proposal I've seen has called for two white men, presumably to try to convince the white working class male vote to switch from Trump. That's a fool's errand.

[topblkmale]

 

She's not even black.

 

[DallasPozzible]

7 hours ago, BootmanLA said:

He also then gave a rousing speech a few days later that reminded me of his best days in the 2020 race.

Biden’s NATO press conference was really good. His speeches have been great. His interviews have been disconcerting though. I understand why he was pushing back on Lester Holt, but he seemed very testy contra his normal affable image.

7 hours ago, BootmanLA said:

One reason I don't think he will withdraw is that most of the proposals being floated to replace him do not involve Harris, and he's smart enough to know that dumping the first black Vice President (and the first woman vice president) will go over like a lead balloon.

Skipping over Harris would be a huge mistake. But most of the serious proposals I’ve heard have recognized that she is the obvious choice. Most other suggestions have vaguely proposed some kind of mini-primary which strikes me as unrealistic. I’ve not been Kamala’s biggest fan, but I think maybe she’s just what we need right now. Pair her with a popular governor from a swing state like Shapiro, Cooper, or Breshear. And someone on her suggested Mark Kelly who might be good too. 

[BarebackedBear]

If Biden drops out at this stage, I'm afraid we're going to have another situation like the Bernie / Hillary situation. We're going to end up with disaffected voters who sit the race out. We might have a chance with a Harris ticket, but I'm not sure who she could pick for a VP. The only name I hear is Newsome and I feel like he's got some baggage.

I also don't think Biden is going to win.

Whether people want to admit it or not, it's always a popularity contest. Our electorate as a whole is too poorly informed on the issues to vote on anything but that. I also blame the rise of identity politics over the last few decades, and single issue voters.

Trump always has things to get his party engaged. Mainly just the fact that he hates the same people they hate. Biden's not doing a good enough job of getting the message out on what he's done in his first term, and I haven't heard a damn thing about what he plans to do in a second. I'm also concerned at the recent displays of his decline, and his age.

Voting for Biden is in all likelihood of vote for a Harris presidency eventually, and a vote against a Trump presidency now. So if that's the ticket, I guess that's what I'm doing.

Edited July 18 by BarebackedBear

[hntnhole]

On 7/15/2024 at 5:04 PM, BootmanLA said:

that may well have eaten into their numbers in some places

I've heard a number of times that the R covid morbidity (the initial appearance) is around 600K nationwide.  There are no actual surveys that I know of, however.  If true, that's a decent chunk of votes the magaroids will surely miss this time around.

I listened to Vance's kinda-sorta "speech" last night.  Many say how brilliant he is, and maybe that's so.  That said, the "meemaw" or whatever he called his grandmother, was probably actually named Vivian.  As in Vivian Vance - Lucille Ball's "set-up" sidekick on that old tv show.   More, for the first time I've ever seen, the talking heads on MSNBC actually blabbed right through a commercial break !!!  I'll lay you 10 to 1 that never happens again.  

That man is as shallow as a slip of scratch paper.   

[hntnhole]

6 hours ago, BarebackedBear said:

who she could pick for a VP

She couldn't do worse than Orange Jesus if she tried.  

[PozBearWI]

6 hours ago, BarebackedBear said:

If Biden drops out at this stage, I'm afraid we're going to have another situation like the Bernie / Hillary situation. We're going to end up with disaffected voters who sit the race out. We might have a chance with a Harris ticket, but I'm not sure who she could pick for a VP. The only name I hear is Newsome and I feel like he's got some baggage.

I also don't think Biden is going to win.

Whether people want to admit it or not, it's always a popularity contest. Our electorate as a whole is too poorly informed on the issues to vote on anything but that. I also blame the rise of identity politics over the last few decades, and single issue voters.

Trump always has things to get his party engaged. Mainly just the fact that he hates the same people they hate. Biden's not doing a good enough job of getting the message out on what he's done in his first term, and I haven't heard a damn thing about what he plans to do in a second. I'm also concerned at the recent displays of his decline, and his age.

Voting for Biden is in all likelihood of vote for a Harris presidency eventually, and a vote against a Trump presidency now. So if that's the ticket, I guess that's what I'm doing.

If Joe drops out of the race, the reaction is very much tied to HOW he drops out and who he proposes as a replacement.  It would be a horrible idea to drop out and leave a vacuum.

[hntnhole]

On 7/16/2024 at 8:28 AM, PozBearWI said:

Perhaps a Harris/Kelly ticket which would check a lot of boxes

I think that if the President actually does cave in to the pressure (which is centered - I believe think, more on preserving and expanding Congressional seats than Biden) a younger person than Senator Kelly as a potential Veep would be more helpful.  Nothing at all against Kelly, but some of the idealistic kids (like some of us used to be a thousand years ago) may well go for one of their own, over another "grandfather" figure. 

Just a notion ... but it's chess at this point.  

[hntnhole]

7 minutes ago, PozBearWI said:

It would be a horrible idea to drop out and leave a vacuum.

Given that we already have a duly elected Veep, there would be no vacuum at all.  She'd have to find her own Veep quickly, of course, but that wouldn't be the biggest problem she'd face.  If the President does leave office, all his committed delegates (and the campaign dough) would go to her (assuming she'd want to run for President). 

I do think, however, this issue must be settled before mid-August, and well before if at all possible.  An open convention is hardly a palatable event.  

Edited July 18 by hntnhole
qualifier

[PozBearWI]

3 minutes ago, hntnhole said:

Given that we already have a duly elected Veep, there would be no vacuum at all.  She'd have to find her own Veep quickly, of course, but that wouldn't be the biggest problem she'd face.  If the President does leave office, all his committed delegates (and the campaign dough) would go to her (assuming she'd want to run for President). 

I do think, however, this issue must be settled before mid-August, and well before if at all possible.  An open convention is hardly a palatable event.  

Yes indeed if Joe dies suddenly we have a Veep.  But if he drops out of the race we have an election to get through, and we will need Harris plus a running mate.  To drop out not having seen to that would be stupid, and very unlike Biden we've experienced for so many decades.

[submarriedhole]

1 hour ago, hntnhole said:

I've heard a number of times that the R covid morbidity (the initial appearance) is around 600K nationwide.  There are no actual surveys that I know of, however.  If true, that's a decent chunk of votes the magaroids will surely miss this time around.

Different realities.