So, the ballots are set

[BootmanLA]

When I started this topic, what seems like a couple of years ago (but which, in reality, was just over a month ago), I stated that unless Biden withdrew, which I didn't support, the field was set.

Well, to quote Ferris Bueller, “Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” In mid-July, when that post was made, Trump and Biden were statistically tied, but with Trump showing a narrow lead in virtually all seven of the states anticipated to be "swing" states this election, including North Carolina (which Trump won last time).

It's now mid-August; Biden withdrew about a week after I started this topic, Harris quickly consolidated support from essentially all factions of the party, and chose a midwestern governor who was a veteran, school teacher, and high school coach. Despite some flailing attempts to swiftboat Walz, he seems to be resonating as the kind of everyman dad a lot of people can relate to.

And at this point, Harris has a wider lead over Trump in the swing states than Trump had over Biden just a month back, and in some cases a much wider lead. We're still nearly 3 months out from the election, but right now, at least, the momentum has turned back Harris' way.

Evidence for which, of course, can be found not only in the polls but in the increasingly deranged rants Trump has been voicing at his rallies and on "Truth" Social. He's starting to mix up where he is - talking to his Pennsylvania rally-goers about how much he loves visiting them in North Carolina - and despite pleas from his advisers to stay on topic, he can't help but drift off into tirades about whatever latest insult he thinks he's cooked up or what injury someone has done to him.

For example, despite a complexion and body that resemble nothing so much as a Circus Peanut, those nasty orange marshmallow "treats" that nobody actually ever eats, he ranted today about how much more attractive a person he is - an obese, 79 year old dementia patient with a combover resembling a muskrat - than the current Vice President.

And this despite a few days ago saying that the drawing of her that appeared as the cover of Time Magazine was of a beautiful woman that he thought looked a lot like his wife Melanoma.

And there are cracks in the monolithic support he's had among the racist base he's so carefully cultivated. White nationalist Nick Fuentes (who's been Trump's dinner guest at Mar-a-Lago) has denounced Trump's campaign for not being more hard-right just as the campaigns are entering the final weeks. Lara "Looney Tunes" Loomer, another racist provocateur, is begging the Trump campaign to stop making this race all about the "stollen" election of 2020. And grifter par excellence Candace Owens, who's never missed a chance to turn a controversy to her benefit, is crying that the Trump campaign staff are hurting him by trying to moderate his grievance message in order to broaden his appeal.

All of this is to say that I'm cautiously optimistic - but more so than at any point since early summer - that Trump will see another defeat this November. As I noted some time back, Harris doesn't even HAVE to win all the states Biden did to take the presidency; there are multiple combinations that would get her there. And North Carolina, which was seen as out of reach a year ago, is solidly in play as the idiot that Trump endorsed in the governor's race there is running ten or more points behind the Democrat - which may spill upwards on the ballots there.

One last sign of how desperate (or delusional - pick one) the Trump supporters are, I saw a post yesterday saying that all Trump really needed to do was win California, and then he wouldn't need any of the swing states. While that's technically true - Harris keeping the 7 swing states Biden won, and adding NC, wouldn't offset losing California - Trump barely got 1/3 of the vote in California in 2020. Thinking he's got even a tiny chance of winning by flipping California is, as I noted, either desperate or delusional.

Trump could still win, no question. But he's got a much harder race to win now, and it's not going to get easier.

[PozBearWI]

I don't believe Trump will win the election.  But I do believe he is going to deny the hell out of his loss, and now he as SCOTUS in his corner.  Honestly there is no way for any of us to know this.  But unless the Trump base finally just throws in the towel on him; I believe we are in for a rough Fall this year.  

[DallasPozzible]

6 hours ago, BootmanLA said:

One last sign of how desperate (or delusional - pick one)

They aren’t mutually exclusive though. So I pick both. 

[BootmanLA]

13 hours ago, DallasPozzible said:

They aren’t mutually exclusive though. So I pick both. 

Duly noted! 🙂

[BootmanLA]

14 hours ago, PozBearWI said:

I don't believe Trump will win the election.  But I do believe he is going to deny the hell out of his loss, and now he as SCOTUS in his corner.  Honestly there is no way for any of us to know this.  But unless the Trump base finally just throws in the towel on him; I believe we are in for a rough Fall this year.  

I agree he's going to probably lose and almost certainly will contest that loss. But unless the loss is down to a single state where there are potentially serious irregularities, I don't think even this Supreme Court would attempt to overturn certified electoral ballots.

What I think is more of a worry is the race coming down to a single state where Trump has loyalists installed as elections officials, and those people refusing to certify a Harris win. THAT is a realistic possibility, which is why I hope she beats the hell out of him in all the swing states. 

[hntnhole]

...... where do I start ..... 

First, I see you've read the book I sent you* .... "1,001 insults for all occasions" .... had several belly-laughs reading your exposition.  

I agree with everything you posited, and in spades.  I think, given the recent successes of the Harris campaign, former President Bone-Spurs senses, with that special instinct fraudsters seem to possess, that the jig is up, the jailhouse doors are creaking open.  But there's no where he can run to this time (other than - oh - maybe an extended vaca to his "loverboy" in N. Korea). 

Granted, nothing's done until it's actually done, but things are looking pretty dismal for His Corpulence.   And that clownish Veep isn't doing him any good either.  It's way too early for a chorus of Happy Days are Here Again, but the band is starting to warm up in the wings !!!

Always enjoy how you build a case, item by item, and then - the coup-de-gras.  

*that was a joke, all the rest of you

[hntnhole]

22 minutes ago, BootmanLA said:

I don't think even this Supreme Court would attempt to overturn certified electoral ballots.

The potential problem appears to be on the State and local level.  Apparently there are many "plants' in the system of certification already in place, which could create a lot of mischief.  That said, if I've heard about that potential problem, the Feds have too, and are diligently working to root the phonies out well before Nov rolls around.

Given the avarice of the two principal problems on the SCOTUS (and their rancid wives), I wish some kind of very threatening action could be taken against them before the election.  It might disincline them to be so cavalier about who they think they are, if the electoral issues got to that point.  

Also apparently, this Project 2025 has been in the works for a long time, and the sheer, brazen-ness of that guy who runs it publicly bragging about it, might be the kick in the pants the State/Fed officials need to pull that weed up by the roots.  

XX = crossed fingers.  

 

Edited August 19 by hntnhole
phrasing

[BootmanLA]

I'll add this: two nights into the DNC, the energy there is palpable, and based solely on vibes, I'm feeling hopeful that Harris has a good chance of winning.

And I'm not the only one: Larry Sabato, who runs one of the larger election forecasting sites, has moved North Carolina from "leaning Republican" to "Toss up". The biggest drag on Trump in NC seems to be the guy he endorsed for the governor's race (Robinson); the man can't seem to break 40% in the polls, with his Democratic opponent (Stein), running anywhere from 4 to 8 points ahead of him (for now). We tend to think of North Carolina as a Republican stronghold, but that's largely due to an excessively gerrymandered legislature (and Congressional delegation). Seven of the last eight governors races have been won by Democrats, in fact.

Robinson is the current Lt. Governor, which means he's got some name recognition built in. But he's adding to that by calling abortion "child sacrifice", declaring that birth control's early leaders were "witches, all of them", and called gay people "filth" and "maggots". With respect to trans people, he's said that transwomen should never be allowed in women's restrooms but should "find a corner outside somewhere to go" instead. And these are just a few of his more notable comments, which have been extensive.

The North Carolina Chamber of Commerce is so concerned about the GOP ticket that it called the primary results “a startling warning of the looming threats to North Carolina’s business climate.” And some of us recall that NC was one of the first states to pass a "bathroom bill" regarding trans people, and it immediately lost the NBA All-Star game from Charlotte, as well as a large amount of other tourism and convention-related business. And fallout from that law probably cost the then-Republican governor re-election.

If North Carolina (which last voted for a Democrat for president in 2008, and before that, in 1976) is back in play, with its 16 electoral votes, anything is possible. Winning NC would exactly compensate if Georgia went back for the Republicans. It would more than compensate for losing Arizona, Wisconsin, or Nevada; in fact, it would exactly compensate for losing Wisconsin AND Nevada.

All of a sudden, there are more paths to a Harris victory than there were just a few weeks ago. 

[hntnhole]

12 hours ago, BootmanLA said:

if Georgia went back for the Republicans

Given who the two most recently elected Senators are, I'm daring to hope that Georgia goes blue in the Presidential election again too. 

Maybe I'm just another nut-job optimist.  Then again ..... it's possible 😁 

[BootmanLA]

22 hours ago, hntnhole said:

Given who the two most recently elected Senators are, I'm daring to hope that Georgia goes blue in the Presidential election again too. 

Maybe I'm just another nut-job optimist.  Then again ..... it's possible 😁 

Oh, I'm hopeful too, but I also recognize that there are elements in the Georgia electoral apparatus that are trying very hard to stymie that. Luckily our side has some of the best attorneys in electoral law, including Marc Elias.