Venezuela

[hntnhole]

Given that Venezuela possess enormous reserves of (in ground) oil, and given that K.S. has been blowing fishing boats out of the water lately, and given that his Nibs has recalled an aircraft carrier group from the Mediterranean, now sailing towards South America, one could be excused for wondering why.  He's been blowing fishing boats out of the water for weeks now, claiming they were laden with illegal drugs.  Perhaps an ancillary motive would be to remove any auxiliary, fast, easily maneuvered Venezuelan boats that could contest (in theory, at least) an effort to displace Maduro from power, and simply install a puppet government in that nation.   

Said puppet government would likely allow the (perhaps behind-the-scenes)  usurping of these oil reserves, to the benefit of the US and it's endless thirst for oil.  This isn't attempting "three dimensional chess",  it's nothing but "I can, so I will".  I'm not actually predicting anything, of course - I don't have a magic hat - but nothing surprises me in DC anymore.  

[PozBearWI]

I don't think Donnie possesses the foresight for that, but I wouldn't put it past some other admin officials.  

[viking8x6]

This is without question an arrogation of powers that belong to Congress.

The Constitution is crystal clear on the subject. 

[NWUSHorny]

Donnie doesn't play 3D chess, he cheats at Chutes and Ladders knocking the board over if he doesn't get his way. That said there is a good chance that some of his Den of Thieves advisors have told him he might be able to capture some of all of the Venezuela oil reserves, and he is trying to provide a way to keep the spoils.

[tobetrained]

@hntnhole here's a pretty all-around article from BBC. Opinion of their quoted experts is he's making it clear to internal / domestic groups -- e.g., elements of their army -- that we are their to support and not lead their effort to oust a dictator.

[think before following links] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gp2lxz75eo

After that, it's unclear next steps. We -- both Biden and Trump admins -- have stated support for the opposition groups who -- by all known measures easily won the last election before Maduro stole it.

[think before following links] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election

This is driven closing down the tentacles of the Russia-China-Iran axis (and, Hamas' move in 2023 was ultimate with that support too). In run up to Ukraine invasion, their allies and friends in our region -- Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela -- pushed out many dissidents and others who then became part of the 2022 immigrant surge as a means of distraction from Ukraine -- as always, that partially worked. See CBS News article from that time:

[think before following links] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cuba-venezuela-nicaragua-migrants-processed-record-us-border-2022/

I'm sure oil is also part of it. But let's say their massive stores are quickly brought online (very unlikely). That depresses the price. Trump's push for domestic exploration and development slows as companies will limit said development due to much lower profits from lower prices -- so it actually would hurt his domestic agenda. Same lower prices though impact everyone, from Russia to our (frenemies) OPEC, as it all goes onto the open market. I think the latter is the bigger long-term goal.

[hntnhole]

Thanks, tobetrained, for those interesting links. 

Given the Administrations interest in Venezuela, and the 40B he's given to the despot farther south, do you think there's some kind of connection between the two?  For instance - oh - maybe a military base in Guatemala - or a naval base on that nations western shore, or anything else.  It doesn't appear that he gives anything to anyone unless he gets something in return.  I seems rather unlikely that he'd pay anything just out of the parsimoniousness of his heart.

Forty billion could buy a lot of "something". 

[tobetrained]

@hntnhole I think it's important to separate geographic proximity from political motives or outcomes.

Venezuela itself is more aligned to last December's Syrian uprising which ousted Bashar al-Assad. That was supported by Turkey which gave the then opposition (and now current government) the comfort and support to move. And, given Turkey's support, we would have been informed to some degree but it's very unclear how much.

In the context of the Russia-China-Iran axis, al-Assad was supported directly by both Iran and Russia. With him gone, Russia has lost their only military base in the Med region, at least temporarily. Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are the only real allies of that axis in the Western hemisphere.

The broader issue of targeting "drug boats" -- Pacific, Caribbean, elsewhere -- is merely the smoke screen. While some of it may be true, we're cutting off Maduro's well trodden escape routes re: boats near Venezuela -- likely with internal Venezuelan military support and intelligence (although this is conjecture). Otherwise, without that back-channel, our military would not be moving or suggesting these moves.

It's also in Maduro's interest to embarrass The US/Trump, and they haven't even bothered trying to fake civilian deaths (as far as I know) as part of this -- e.g. the repercussions of a boat strike. He's more concerned with internal matters -- and figuring out who it is in the military/elsewhere that may try to oust him.

The difference between Venezuela and Argentina is Maduro is of the militant far-left Socialist ideology, and Biden had a reward out for his capture. Milei is of the opposite political outlook and came to power via fair elections and not a coup. Specific to Argentina: here's a "bid deal" picture of Argentina and why elections have turned out as they have recently, anti-leftist:

"Inflation Rate in Argentina decreased to 31.80 percent in September from 33.60 percent in August of 2025. Inflation Rate in Argentina averaged 189.08 percent from 1944 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 20262.80 percent in March of 1990 and a record low of -7.00 percent in February of 1954. source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC)" from site:

[think before following links] [think before following links] https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi

The far-left Peronist's lost all sight of fiscal restraint let alone responsibility, leading to above economic as well as political reactions. If they had been more responsible, or at least not reckless, Milei would never have been able to gain the support he did. Argentina is the definition as to why "government can't do everything all the time." Peronists would just make empty promises to do everything and then fail to deliver almost anything. And, Milei's policies are working, to some degree:

[think before following links] [think before following links] https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-inflation-cools-may-lowest-over-five-years-2025-06-12/

As for Trump, he's an Oligarch and he -- personally -- is his own ideology. So yes, unless he feels he's getting something, he's uninterested. I would suggest, though, the same is true for political parties or movements. The progressive left is an example with the shutdown, as stated in Trump Promises convo and won't re-hash here. But those Federal workers are pushing back, here are a couple links on that as Dem support struggles with pressure from major unions as they no longer want to be collateral damage: 

[think before following links] [think before following links] https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/27/democrats-face-moment-of-truth-as-shutdown-coalition-frays-00624346
[think before following links] [think before following links] https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/10/28/congress/controllers-union-doesnt-go-as-far-as-afge-in-shutdown-plea-00624445

I can't speak to your comment of Milei being a dictator without more detail. He came to power in fair and open elections. His party won again on Sunday, further strengthening their position. I try not to use terms like dictator just because I don't like the policies of a person or their party. Equally, I didn't like it when Republicans called Obama a dictator or that he was attempting to be a king.

Edited 3 hours ago by tobetrained
added: (although this is conjecture)

[Pozzible]

I just shudder looking at the Venezuela situation. I thought we had learned lessons from our adventures in Vietnam and Iraq. (But Trump learning lessons on anything is a losing bet.) Though I agree that the boat situation is a smokescreen, it’s highly illegal.

The only war we should be involved with is getting all the financial and weaponry we can to Ukraine. If Trump really wants to win a Nobel 🙄, he would get NATO to fast-track membership for Ukraine. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Pozzible
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