How easy to get poz?

[melbtm]

Just wanna ask how easy to be poz? I understand that it is different when fuck by und or poz guy? But normally how many und load or poz load would turn a guy? Or anyone can tell how many load to turn u or you turn someone?

[alphablkmn]

For some it just takes once for others it may never happen

[rawTOP]

It's highly variable. Depends more on who fucks you than the number of loads you take.

The research says that undetectable loads can't infect someone else.

[lkngrnd]

One guy, one time for me. Same with a friend of mine. Neither of us were chasing. It just happened. 6 months apart. Depends on how toxic their load is and your own body.

[nipplepigny1]

Fourth guy for me

[Poz1956]

Questions like this are the exact reason HIV educators are reluctant to give the actual risk statistics. I'll give the numbers, but first I need you to understand what they mean. The chances are exactly like when you roll a pair of dice. Each and every time you toss the die, you have exactly the same chance of it coming up snake eyes. It could be the first time you roll them, or you might never have it happen. The chance of snake eyes has no relationship to what happened on previous rolls. It in no way impacts what number will come up in the future.

It takes one fuck from one guy to become Poz. Top or bottom, it's still just one fuck. Be in the wrong place, at the wrong time, with the wrong guy, and it's one fuck.

About 83% of new infections are from guys who do not know they are Poz. They all think they're "clean."

There are also a pile of variables that we can't predict. Some people are genetically more receptive to HIV. How rough of a fuck? Did it draw blood? Was lube used? The high multi-million viral loads of a newly infected guy greatly increase the chance - and he can't even test Poz yet. The moderately high viral loads of a chronically infected guy who isn't on treatment still pose a relatively "high" risk. But even the continuum from "High Risk" to "Low Risk" used by our HIV educators, is considered "Low Risk" to "Negligible Risk" by HIV specialists.

Studies and research show that it is extremely unlikely an Undetectable Pozzie to transmit the virus. We know it is theoretically possible for it to happen if all the wrong conditions existed, but that would be an exceeding rare event.

It is very difficult to calculate the risk per exposure. The numbers below are the current best estimates. They are for transmission from a chronically infected individual with a viral load in the 30,000 to 120,000 range. For a bottom the risk is 1 in 71 exposures to the virus. For an uncut top it is 1 in 161. For a cut top it is 1 in 909.

Again - that DOES NOT mean a bottom can get fucked by a Pozzie 70 times without catching the virus. Each and every exposure carries that same 1 in 71 chance. It might happen on the first roll in the hay, or it might never happen.

Edited August 10, 2014 by Poz1956

[Guest JizzDumpWI]

Well done Poz1956... As always.

[lower_bucks_bottom]

It is very difficult to calculate the risk per exposure. The numbers below are the current best estimates. They are for transmission from a chronically infected individual with a viral load in the 30,000 to 120,000 range. For a bottom the risk is 1 in 71 exposures to the virus. For an uncut top it is 1 in 161. For a cut top it is 1 in 909.

Could you post a reference to these numbers? I don't doubt them, I just don't want to quote them without a good reference.

Thanks

[Poz1956]

Lower_bucks_bottom: The sentence in yellow is a hyperlink to the reference material containing those numbers. The Fall 2012 article titled "Putting a number on it: The risk from an exposure to HIV" is from CATIE (Canadian AIDS Treatment Information Exchange). Footnotes to that piece list the scientific studies from which these numbers are drawn.

[lower_bucks_bottom]

Thank you, I should have realized it was a link

[Danny_]

-Well, if you plan to have 70 pozzing sessions (let's assume all with different poz-men) then the chance is much bigger than 1 to 71 you will be infected, at the start of the series!

1-(70/71) to the exponent of 70= about 0.63, meaning your chance is then (beforehand) almost 2 to 3 of getting the bug. ...Correct me if I am wrong.

It's true the dice has no memory. But before the future comes it has more potential, depending on the number of times you will give it a roll.

[Guest JizzDumpWI]

Save that we're talking about human biology and not craps... Numbers and formulas mean nothing. Bottom line one doesn't know if the next load will convert them, or they'll come out of a raunch sex weekend still neg. That really is the point here. Want to avoid HIV? Get on PrEP.

[Danny_]

In my impression the question of the topic starter is not about avoiding HIV, but about how easy it is to get the bug. It is easier the more contacts you have with poz tops. -Seems simple to me.

Besides, human biology is nothing without numbers and formulas.

[drscorpio]

The math Danny_ calculated is correct. So is your point, JizzDumpWI. You are comparing apples and oranges.

If a bottom is negative and he gets fucked bare, the chance of exposure is 1/71 (about 0.014) every time assuming Poz1956 number is correct.

The calculation Danny_ did tells us that if a bottom is negative and gets fucked 70 times bareback, then the chance that exposure occurred AT LEAST one time at the end of those 70 fucks is about 0.63 which is much greater.

That's just the mathematics of the fact that we all know was true before the successes of TAsP and PrEP - if a bottom barebacks long enough, he will convert.

[Poz1956]

It's important to point out that Danny's math requires that ALL of those tops have high viral loads. In fact, the bottom is Exposed to HIV on each of those occasions. Whether he actually contracts HIV is still down to the correct mix of biological factors all lining up together on any of those fucks.

The same article goes on to point out how the extremely high viral loads of an acute infection (someone who caught HIV in the last few weeks but still thinks he's "clean") increases the risk. With viral loads in the one million to ten million range, the risk rises to 1 in 5 exposures. The higher the viral load, the higher the risk.

I'm not arguing anything about cumulative risk. It's a given that if he is exposed to high viral load cum often enough, it becomes extremely likely that the bottom will become Poz. It really comes down to luck, and that particular guy's own biology. There are lots of guys who made it out of the 80's and were exposed more that 71 times, but managed to stay Neg.

Estimated risks are just a best guess. Regardless of the mathematical calculation of cumulative risk, it is still a roll of the die for each and every fuck. They can help us decide the level of risk we are comfortable with, but they are far from a true predictions of what will actually happen.

One part of the original poster's question asked about how many Undetectable Poz loads, and I missed that. Again, given the right biological factors, one fuck could be enough, for a guy who is genetically more susceptible to HIV. We don't know the real chances yet, because there are so few cases in the scientific literature.

The Partner study hasn't shown any transmissions from the Undetectable Pozzies in the first two years of the project. We'll have a better idea when Partner2 reports in 2017. Because all the participants in Partner have a previous history of condomless sex, without the Neg spouse becoming Poz, that automatically filters out relationships where the Neg partner is genetically more likely to catch HIV. They call it "The Healthy Survivor Effect."

Since the Opposites Attract study is enrolling couples at any stage of their relationship, we expect that some of them will have just gotten together recently. It is possible we could see transmissions occurring in that study due to biological susceptibility. If none of the Neg partners catch HIV in that study we'll have a very good understanding about how low is the risk posed by an Undetectable Pozzie. The final analysis from Opposites, is also expected in 2017.

Until both of those studies publish their results in 2017, we'll have to accept the anecdotal evidence that Undetectable Pozzies are unlikely to pass on HIV. If it was happening, we would have heard about it by now. The fact that Treatment as Prevention (TasP) is being heavily promoted by epidemiologists is pretty darn good evidence that transmissions are not occurring very often.

Edited August 11, 2014 by Poz1956