Can I really be a cum dump and stay neg?

[drscorpio]

There is a second more important error in thought we need to address. When you take a raw load from a poz top, that is like reaching into a bag with 70 white marbles and 1 red marble; that is a 1 in 71 chance of drawing the red marble. The next time you take a load, it is still a bag with 70 white and 1 red not 69 white and 1 red (assuming you didn't get pozzed). The second load has the same probability as the first. The trials are independent. Over time that makes a huge difference. 

In other words, you can take 71 loads and never get pozzed. It isn't like each time you take a load you make a poz load more likely.  

[BootmanLA]

11 minutes ago, drscorpio said:

There is a second more important error in thought we need to address. When you take a raw load from a poz top, that is like reaching into a bag with 70 white marbles and 1 red marble; that is a 1 in 71 chance of drawing the red marble. The next time you take a load, it is still a bag with 70 white and 1 red not 69 white and 1 red (assuming you didn't get pozzed). The second load has the same probability as the first. The trials are independent. Over time that makes a huge difference. 

In other words, you can take 71 loads and never get pozzed. It isn't like each time you take a load you make a poz load more likely.  

True, and I think that illustrates the point well. The thing to remember, though, is that the "odds for any one particular draw" may be the same, draw after draw, but the "odds that you will never draw the red marble" over a long run of, say, 1000 draws are not the same (and not saying you're suggesting they are).

Of course, with the marbles, we're talking purely random draws. Sex with non-UD poz men, by contrast, doesn't work like that. A poz, non-UD top with a pretty large cock and a PA who likes to fuck hard slamming hard and deep from the get-go has a greater chance of pozzing a negative bottom (because of the increased likelihood of bleeding) than an average-sized guy who's not so rough, for instance. If the top's viral load is extremely high, either shortly after infection or if he's advancing into AIDS, the odds of converting from *that* sex act are higher than the odds in a sex act where the guy's not UD, but has a moderate viral load.

All of which is to say, I'm not disagreeing with you, but the 1 in 71 number is an average, and for any *particular* prospective sex act with any *particular* top, they might be much higher or much lower.

[Openmouthpolicy]

5 hours ago, drscorpio said:

This is NOT correct. That assumes the chance of the virus being passed on without PrEP is 100%. 

PrEP decreases your risk by more than 99%. At the worst case (poz top cums inside you), the chance of infection taking is about 1.43% (1 in 70). So PrEP decreased your risk to .0143% which is a probability of 0.000143. It's closer to 1 in 7000 than 1 in 100. 

Thanks this makes a lot of sense to me, I’m extremely good about taking my prep every morning, had a pretty Risky week, maybe took about 5 loads at a bath house but had plenty of cocks in my ass and mouth. A little nervous about it but I feel like 5 isn’t so bad but afraid cause it’s only takes one. Def going to keep taking prep for as long as as I can 

[Guest WelshBBCigarFuck]

With most things in life there is an element of risk, whilst risk can be minimised it can never truly be totally eliminated, it’s something you need to accept. Whilst PrEP will reduce the risk of contracting HIV to a very low level you can also ask statuses before playing and make a choice whilst being on PrEP of only playing with negative or undetectable guys only - providing the guys know their status (or are honest about it) then the risk reduces further.

I have been barebacking around 30 years, since my teens, I have had a good few thousand sexual partners, the majority of whom have been one off meets in cruising grounds, bar toilets, apps or sauna’s. The worst thing I ever contracted was a dose of gonorrhoea. I had one situation where a guy told me he was neg until AFTER we played bare and slipped up he was high viral load poz, so I spent a month on PEP (I wasn’t letting some lying bastard knock me up, especially one who wasn’t that good a shag) and I am still negative.

Statistics aren’t always a good gauge for real life, some people (like me) can slut around for decades and still be negative whereas others might only have unprotected sex a handful of times and end up positive. While PrEP can minimise the risk, nothing is infallible so it’s important that you know and you accept those risks. 
If you cannot accept the risk that you may, however unlikely, contract HIV then don’t bareback, it’s as simple as that. My mindset is that I know the risks, I have friends and fuckbuds who have HIV and know that if I did contract it that I have their support.  I also know that with modern medication HIV is a manageable condition which needn’t necessarily lead to a lower life expectancy and that you can reduce your viral load to an extent where you are little to no risk to others.

At the end of the day the choice is yours to make, you need to make an informed decision and weigh up whether you can accept even the most minuscule risk or not, it’s that acceptance or lack of acceptance that is your answer as to whether you bareback or not.

[ErosWired]

15 hours ago, drscorpio said:

This is NOT correct. That assumes the chance of the virus being passed on without PrEP is 100%. 

PrEP decreases your risk by more than 99%. At the worst case (poz top cums inside you), the chance of infection taking is about 1.43% (1 in 70). So PrEP decreased your risk to .0143% which is a probability of 0.000143. It's closer to 1 in 7000 than 1 in 100. 

You are right, of course, in terms of the mathematics. The point of my post, however, was most importantly that even with PrEP, the chance of infection is not zero. And even if your chance is 1 in 7000, that doesn’t mean you’re free and clear to take 6,999 loads before there’s a chance of infection.

The OP wishes to know if he can cumdump with the expectation of remaining neg. If the question had been “Can I cumdump without ever getting an STD?” I doubt there would be any question - the answer would be no. This question targets a specific STD, but the safeguards against it are not a guarantee, and the more times you take the risk, the more times you face the chance of its failure.

Can you cumdump and stay neg? Sure, you could - but you’d better be prepared for the alternative.

[Openmouthpolicy]

Thanks guys, I took a couple loads this week and on prep. Going to keep taking prep for a few months and abstain from sex and get tested in about month. Hopefully it’s negative, I feel confident that it will be but still nervous. Took a lot of cock my hole was sore after wards for an hour but back to normal so I don’t feel like anyone was really rough but I did take about 5 loads without knowing their status. Kinda nervous about it but I’m relying on prep. The posts on here seem really conflicting so I still don’t really know what to believe. 

[NBBTTM]

Dammit, there you guys go, combining two of my favorite things, statistics and fucking...

[mixnzz]

i love being a cumdump........it controls my life........and i finally got knocked up.........NO REGRETS!!!!!!

[ErosWired]

On 7/7/2021 at 9:52 PM, drscorpio said:

In other words, you can take 71 loads and never get pozzed. It isn't like each time you take a load you make a poz load more likely.  

The probability of an event over repeated trials is not exactly the same as its probability in any individual trial. In probability, the certainty of an outcome is expressed as 1, with the certainty that it won’t happen expressed as 0. For a coin toss, the chance of it coming up tails (because I’m all about ass, naturally) is 1/2, one of two possible outcomes. The chance of a toss coming up tails on any given toss is therefore 1/2 -> .5 -> 50% for any given toss.

 But what is the probability of getting tails if you toss it twice? The probability can be defined as 1 - 1/2^n, with n being the number of trials. Therefore: 1 - 1/(2^2) -> 1 - 1/4 -> 1 - .25 -> .75 -> 75%. If we toss 10 times, 1 - 1/2^10 -> 99.90234%. That’s the probability of the result across the total number of trials, even though the probability of a result in any individual toss remains 50%. Even  though that 99.9% looks pretty certain, it’s only a statement of statistical likelihood, not an absolute predictor of the outcome and you might never toss tails at all... but the more times you toss, the better your overall chances are you’ll hit it at least once.

It works the same way for something you don’t want.

[Openmouthpolicy]

13 hours ago, NBBTTM said:

Dammit, there you guys go, combining two of my favorite things, statistics and fucking...

Yeah I figured if I turn poz by the measly 5 loads I took this week at steam works then I’ll just have to commit to a life of being a cum dump. I’m a good looking smooth Latin muscle bottom and I love competing with other bottoms for loads and the only thing that has ever stopped me is the fear of HIV, but if I do get it I’ll turn into the courtesy bottom at every party any of you ever go to. Hope I’m not poz though but trying to look at the bright side 

[bttmpink7]

all this doubt and anxiety really puts me off cumdumping to be honest 

[Openmouthpolicy]

7 hours ago, bttmpink7 said:

all this doubt and anxiety really puts me off cumdumping to be honest 

Yeah same, in a perfect world I’d be ass up in a sling every weekend but seems like it’s going to be a fantasy. Can’t do it if the risk of turning poz is so prevalent even on Prep. I never miss my prep and I don’t do drugs except poppers. Usually I’ll just get bred by couple on Grindr who are neg and on prep too in order to satisfy my craving. Doesn’t always work though. 

[LetsPOZBreed]

I love it when we involve math and sex!  And statistics at that?  This is my nerdy wet dream!   😄 😄 😄 

@ErosWired's last comment on differentiation of individual outcomes vs. the outcomes over time is the best one so far (with regards to cumdumping).  Agreed that it's just a statistical likelihood, though...in theory you can flip a coin 1000 times and get heads each time; it's extremely unlikely, but it theoretically could happen.

I will concede that other behaviours would play into this as well.  Certainly your PrEP usage is a mitigating factor, but outside of that, there's also the VL of the guy fucking you, the vigor in which he fucks you, do you bleed/tear, etc.  So many factors at play.  I know guys who "chased" for quite some time before successfully converting, so even one poz top isn't enough.  Granted, with PrEP, you're more likely to stay neg now than if you did it when I started barebacking exclusively about 15 years ago...

Now, if only we can start a topic on the economics and math behind the gay porn industry from the 70's to today.???...  😄 😄 😄 

[bttmpink7]

1 hour ago, Openmouthpolicy said:

Yeah same, in a perfect world I’d be ass up in a sling every weekend but seems like it’s going to be a fantasy. Can’t do it if the risk of turning poz is so prevalent even on Prep. I never miss my prep and I don’t do drugs except poppers. Usually I’ll just get bred by couple on Grindr who are neg and on prep too in order to satisfy my craving. Doesn’t always work though. 

Same, recently its been getting detrimental to my mental health and self worth I've actively pursued counselling for it

[Guest]

Bareback with 100s of anonymous guys over 20 years and still neg. just keep taking it in …