So, the ballots are set

[TaKinGDeePanal]

Vance is Trump's more coherent echo chamber - and Harris screwed the pooch in Mexico and Guatemala in 2021 (plus she has a history of overzealously prosecuting Black defendants).

[BarebackedBear]

18 hours ago, PozBearWI said:

If Joe drops out of the race, the reaction is very much tied to HOW he drops out and who he proposes as a replacement.  It would be a horrible idea to drop out and leave a vacuum.

I've been saying the same thing for a while, but the more he digs in his heels the worse it's going to look at this point. If he had done it when the concerns first became apparent, he could have made an announcement that he's decided on his own that it's time to step down, to make way for the next generation, and he could have urged all of his supporters to get behind Harris, or whoever it became. 

Instead, he's now spent weeks insisting only God can make him drop out. Which is ironic given the fact that just a few days after that he came down with covid.

He's not only digging his own political grave at this point, he's digging the grave for a lot of down ballot races. Democrats in competitive districts are being urged to distance themselves from Biden which is a pretty clear sign that the damage is not only done, it's spreading.

[PozBearWI]

2 hours ago, BarebackedBear said:

I've been saying the same thing for a while, but the more he digs in his heels the worse it's going to look at this point. If he had done it when the concerns first became apparent, he could have made an announcement that he's decided on his own that it's time to step down, to make way for the next generation, and he could have urged all of his supporters to get behind Harris, or whoever it became. 

Instead, he's now spent weeks insisting only God can make him drop out. Which is ironic given the fact that just a few days after that he came down with covid.

He's not only digging his own political grave at this point, he's digging the grave for a lot of down ballot races. Democrats in competitive districts are being urged to distance themselves from Biden which is a pretty clear sign that the damage is not only done, it's spreading.

@BarebackedBear I believe we'll see a change.  I obviously don't know it; but if I were Joe and reviewed not only the debate, but many interviews since, he has experienced the double time aging that all presidents (well save for 45) experience.  He is pretty aware I believe.  It is so important that when he steps out of the race it is turning the keys over to another pair.   Kamala is a good choice and quite logical.  Had Joe died in office, she would be President.   This would have been a stupid week for him to pull out, or even indicate he might.  The more he continues to say "I'm staying in" the more time he gives his party to evaluate options of the most likely to succeed in election pairing.  

One thing I started this week.  I stopped listening to any news.  I think my blood pressure dropped.  🙂  I'll catch up without having to endure David Muir's obsession with breaking news that isn't breaking at all.

Edited July 19 by PozBearWI

[NWUSHorny]

After last night's performance, both parties should be calling for their primary winners to step down.

[BootmanLA]

5 minutes ago, NWUSHorny said:

After last night's performance, both parties should be calling for their primary winners to step down.

As Nate Silver (who I don't hold in high esteem, but there's no doubting he's at least aware of what's going on) said last night, he's never seen an election where it appears both major parties are trying to throw the election.

 

[BootmanLA]

An astute point I read this morning: virtually every national Democrat calling for Biden to withdraw is from a deep blue district or state. Why is that important?

These people are used to fighting in primaries for the base vote, not for competing for swing voters. Their perception of what sells is informed by their experience in those districts/states, and they're not used to having to appeal to the middle, which is where Biden's strength lies.

I realize that there are some Democratic voters who are frustrated that bigger advances haven't been made in some areas, and other Democratic voters angry about the situation in Gaza. Both of those groups are substantially to the left of the middle, though, and any candidate who pulls closer to them is pulling away from the persuadable center.

Ironically, Harris herself is also in that middle (with her less-than-liberal approach to law enforcement in CA as a guide). Most of those calling for Biden to step aside seem to think the answer is a more progressive white guy - which might energize the base but alienate the edge voters.

But the base can also be motivated by means other than a really progressive candidate, as we saw in 2020. Fear of a right-wing takeover might well get a lot of them out to vote, if that's capitalized on sufficiently. That fear doesn't work as well on edge voters, but a more center-left candidate can be appealing enough to get them to vote Democratic.

The question is: which nets more votes, switching to a progressive candidate and praying that the base turns out in more-than-record numbers to offset the loss of centrists, or keeping a centrist candidate and trying to motivate the base to turn out heavily? I'll admit I don't know the answer, but I'm not sure I'd trust politicians from deep blue districts to know, either.

[PozBearWI]

27 minutes ago, BootmanLA said:

An astute point I read this morning: virtually every national Democrat calling for Biden to withdraw is from a deep blue district or state. Why is that important?

These people are used to fighting in primaries for the base vote, not for competing for swing voters. Their perception of what sells is informed by their experience in those districts/states, and they're not used to having to appeal to the middle, which is where Biden's strength lies.

I realize that there are some Democratic voters who are frustrated that bigger advances haven't been made in some areas, and other Democratic voters angry about the situation in Gaza. Both of those groups are substantially to the left of the middle, though, and any candidate who pulls closer to them is pulling away from the persuadable center.

Ironically, Harris herself is also in that middle (with her less-than-liberal approach to law enforcement in CA as a guide). Most of those calling for Biden to step aside seem to think the answer is a more progressive white guy - which might energize the base but alienate the edge voters.

But the base can also be motivated by means other than a really progressive candidate, as we saw in 2020. Fear of a right-wing takeover might well get a lot of them out to vote, if that's capitalized on sufficiently. That fear doesn't work as well on edge voters, but a more center-left candidate can be appealing enough to get them to vote Democratic.

The question is: which nets more votes, switching to a progressive candidate and praying that the base turns out in more-than-record numbers to offset the loss of centrists, or keeping a centrist candidate and trying to motivate the base to turn out heavily? I'll admit I don't know the answer, but I'm not sure I'd trust politicians from deep blue districts to know, either.

Risk vs Risk; as is always the case, but the downside is worse this time of 'getting it wrong'.  In a sane world I would dig more deeply into each candidate as I really don't give a rip about what party they are in, but I do care about who they are; how they go about making choices (as they are going to be doing that on my behalf).  The ruined GOP has abandoned sanity altogether for a world of utter fantasy.  

The challenge for the Dems is to appeal to the most they can.  Even then we know the Orange Geesus is going to claim he won.  Facts have no bearing on that party.  

I am uncertain how we as a people should act beyond voting.  I would love to think we'll run a relatively normal democracy.  But I could easily it being the beginning of a new US Civil war.  

 

[hntnhole]

On 7/18/2024 at 11:55 AM, PozBearWI said:

Voting for Biden is in all likelihood of vote for a Harris presidency eventually, and a vote against a Trump presidency now

While I have nothing but admiration for the President, I'm a realist - you're almost certainly right.  That eventuality would be ideal, if he doesn't decide to step down. 

Plus, if the trumpet. dares to debate Harris, I'll buy tickets to that take-down.  She'll mop the floor with him - and the same with the "bearded wunderkind".  

[NicNorth]

As someone from the other side of the pond it’s very interesting and instructive to read all these thoughtful comments it’s  helped me understand both the dilemmas and calculations needed to be made.  Here in the UK we care very much about how this will play out and I personally hope the Democrats find the best solution. 

[BlackDude]

As someone who won’t be voting for either party the top of the ticket, it’s crazy to see the republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

All theyhad to do was not be racist for three months, and they blew it. On top of that, if Trump selected Rubio, he could have started hiring the moving vans back to the White House. But he just couldn’t bring himself to select someone not Anglo, even if it diminishing  his chances. 

[hntnhole]

6 hours ago, BlackDude said:

All theyhad to do was not be racist for three months

As you surely know, "racism" is not something folks put on or take off like a shirt or cap.

Once introduced, it's something that grows in a fevered mind - fertilizing resentments, false equivalency, anti-human behavior. 

It's a learned depravity, but it's possible to unlearn racism, given the realization in the racist's mind that it's unhealthy in every way. The "antidote" to racism also is a learned behavior, given the individual's determination to flush it down the mental john. 

All it takes is to recognize in ones self the mental/emotional wart, and keep applying the antidote until if finally fades away.  It may be hard work, and take no small amount of time, but it's a happy, productive journey as well, and can be applied to any particular aspect of our mindset that we realize is counterproductive.  

[BlackDude]

8 hours ago, hntnhole said:

As you surely know, "racism" is not something folks put on or take off like a shirt or cap.

Once introduced, it's something that grows in a fevered mind - fertilizing resentments, false equivalency, anti-human behavior. 

It's a learned depravity, but it's possible to unlearn racism, given the realization in the racist's mind that it's unhealthy in every way. The "antidote" to racism also is a learned behavior, given the individual's determination to flush it down the mental john. 

All it takes is to recognize in ones self the mental/emotional wart, and keep applying the antidote until if finally fades away.  It may be hard work, and take no small amount of time, but it's a happy, productive journey as well, and can be applied to any particular aspect of our mindset that we realize is counterproductive.  

I understand that. It was a tongue and cheek comment/observation. 

[BootmanLA]

20 hours ago, BlackDude said:

As someone who won’t be voting for either party the top of the ticket, it’s crazy to see the republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

All theyhad to do was not be racist for three months, and they blew it. On top of that, if Trump selected Rubio, he could have started hiring the moving vans back to the White House. But he just couldn’t bring himself to select someone not Anglo, even if it diminishing  his chances. 

Your profile doesn't say where you live. And if you live in a reliably red or blue state it doesn't matter much if you throw away your vote on a third party candidate or don't vote at all for president.

But if you live in a swing state, understand that not voting for Biden means one more vote for the racist party not offset by a vote for the other side. Given your interest in racial issues and recognition of the racist agenda on the Republican side, I'd think that would be enough motivation to hold your nose and vote for Biden.

But you do you.

[fuckholedc]

21 hours ago, BlackDude said:

As someone who won’t be voting for either party the top of the ticket, it’s crazy to see the republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

All theyhad to do was not be racist for three months, and they blew it. On top of that, if Trump selected Rubio, he could have started hiring the moving vans back to the White House. But he just couldn’t bring himself to select someone not Anglo, even if it diminishing  his chances. 

The republicans have set themselves for a victory, possibly a landslide victory.

Racism on their part is meaningless because it is excused by most of their supporters.  Trump's and Vance's rhetoric accurately appeals to their followers.  The fact that Vance is Anglo is meaningless for the majority of non-white Trumpsters.  What is meaningful, at least in part, is homophobia, which seems to be rolled into their security issues since security is a codeword for immigration but it also reflects some homophobia on the part of non-white Trumpsters who have spoken to me.

 

 

[topblkmale]

On 7/20/2024 at 5:05 AM, BlackDude said:

As someone who won’t be voting for either party the top of the ticket, it’s crazy to see the republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

All theyhad to do was not be racist for three months, and they blew it. On top of that, if Trump selected Rubio, he could have started hiring the moving vans back to the White House. But he just couldn’t bring himself to select someone not Anglo, even if it diminishing  his chances. 

 

I agree 100% and won't be voting for either neither.

 

Edited July 21 by topblkmale