Questions About Likelihood

[Memprys]

I'm interested in knowing if there are any reliable statistics regarding the probability of being POZZED by a single act of anal sex, and in how much those chances are increased when the top ranges from undetectable to unmedicated.

[MackyJay]

     Don't know if there are any 'reliable' statistics or not.  Main ones do state that undetectable loads tend to not spread hiv at all and so far have not found any that have gotten hiv from an undetectable person.  Unmedicated is almost as bad for 'reliable' sources.  The ones available state that, like a woman getting pregnant, one time could infect you but on average it takes several times to convert.  Have seen the odds listed as anywhere from 20 to 70 to 1 of being converted with overall chances listed at 50 to 1.  There are ongoing studies but none completely conclusive other than if you BB and take any and all loads you will probably catch it sooner than later.   Hope this helps.  Two sources you might want to ask are RawTop or BearBandit on here as they have much more  info than me and usually it is very good info.

[wood]

Heres the info you are looking for.  Mind you it really doesnt mean much.  It can happen the first exposure, or you can be exposed for decades.  

 

http://www.poz.com/pdfs/P04-14p53.risk_transmission.pdf