Monkeypox

[BootmanLA]

On 7/29/2022 at 5:54 PM, muscmtl said:

So 2 doses or 1 ?

The official recommendation is two doses four weeks apart, which is projected to give very long term immunity.

What's being bandied about is the fact that apparently a single dose gives you that level of protection for a year or two, at a minimum, and doses are in short supply, but are expected to grow in availability over the fall and winter.

The logical conclusion to draw from that is, if you only take one dose now, the second can go to someone else as HIS first dose, and both of you can get your second dose later in the year, before immunity wanes, and thus the current supply will protect a lot more people.

It's being suggested as a way to help get this under control faster by vaccinating more people with the available supply.

[BootmanLA]

14 hours ago, fuckholedc said:

I have seen that people are not provided math tools to help protect themselves during epidemics (apparently even intelligent people [Fauci for example] think that math models are too much for people).  

Americans are notoriously bad at math. I did a quick sketch to demonstrate to someone why a particular path from my parking spot at work to the building doors had the least-steep rise (and thus was the least stressful to walk in the summer heat), and when I casually mentioned "y=m(x)+b" as the way to determine the slope, he looked at me like I'd grown two heads and wanted to know what kind of engineering degree I had to figure that out. I was like "Dude, this is 10th grade geometry" but he couldn't grasp the basics of the math involved, even with no numbers.

[pup666cerberus]

On 7/22/2022 at 3:47 PM, JimInWisc said:

Last time i broke out in hives was when I discovered an allergy to a laundry product I had switched to a couple months before.  The one with the European looking woman (costume) is sniffing dirty clothes and dancing.  I concluded they took that video when  she broke out in hives...  🙂  

Go to Urgent Care confident that whatever they find they will help you handle it.  No point fretting too much stuff that "IS".  

Thanks for the advice!! I'm still not confidently sure what is going on, definitely not MP I know for a fact cuz of the symptoms and lack of symptoms....but I have a DR appointment coming up for my main DR who looks after my HIV and what not, so I am gonna ask to have additional testing done. My hypochondriac self can't help but look up symptoms and then I get into a rabbit hole that eventually leads to "you're dying" XDDDD so I have definitely tried to stay positive and not freak out just yet lol  

[pup666cerberus]

On 7/22/2022 at 4:49 PM, rawTOP said:

If none of them have puss, then almost certainly not Mpox. 

thankfully none of them have been anything to worry about, but they are still occurring. So that in and of itself is very worrisome and I'm at a loss for what could be going on. I have had other symptoms begin, but it's not like....SUPER serious, or at least I am not terribly worried at the moment. What my DR says on the 4th is where we will go..... :))

[AlwaysOpen]

On 7/29/2022 at 7:57 PM, fuckholedc said:

I induced a basic exponential function for monkeypox data from Germany (I cannot find historical data for Berlin itself)

So the function is y = 0.5381741*x^2.000014 where x is days since May 19, 2022 (May 19 is day 1).

 

 

 

 

 

Well, when I tried your formula ,I kept coming up with Pi are squared, and of course that could only mean rhubarb, but that is out of season right now, so I went out to the kitchen and had a dish of strawberry ice cream. What was the question again?

[EuroMusk76]

22 hours ago, fuckholedc said:

Really?  Has this begun to happen?

SilverSteele on Twitter is an example for OF/JFF models dealing openly with their MPX infection.

 

[subhole]

On 7/29/2022 at 5:04 PM, subhole said:

Got my MPX shot today at around 10 a.m., here in Germany. Now it's 5 p.m. and I'm feeling fine so far. Let's see how it developes over the next days. 🙂 

Two days later: the next day I was very tired and had a headache, but today everything is fine. 🙂

[NEDenver]

On 7/29/2022 at 5:57 PM, fuckholedc said:

I induced a basic exponential function for monkeypox data from Germany (I cannot find historical data for Berlin itself) without the wild assumptions I had made prior to my trip to Montreal.  Currently most of the monkeypox cases are occurring in Berlin but this will change if the outbreak isn't contained so currently this function is basically a Berlin function.

The function is not bad and may indicate that inoculations and other measures are in fact having an effect.  The question will be is that is sufficient.

So the function is y = 0.5381741*x^2.000014 where x is days since May 19, 2022 (May 19 is day 1).

This indicates that in two weeks cumulative monkeypox cases will be 3798 which would be an additional 1258.  These new cases are currently locked in because the incubation period is approx. 2 weeks.  The current doubling period is approx. 27 days and appears to be getting longer.  If this holds up *AND* if the doubling period continues to lengthen then the outbreak will be corralled in Germany.  

 

 

 

 

So, because I'm currently a data scientist, and taught math in a previous lifetime (and am therefore a pedant), this isn't an exponential equation it's basically quadratic.  An exponential function will have the form y=c^(x) (basically a constant raised to the power of x.  If you have the data, you should be able to get Excel to spit out the exponential function for you.  Something to watch out for with exponential functions is that there's almost always some type of logistics problem where the growth is eventually impeded by lack of a resource (people here is a resource).

Anyway, have fun with math!

[rawTOP]

On 7/30/2022 at 8:17 PM, fuckholedc said:

Really?  Has this begun to happen?

Yup…

Besides Silver Steele, which @EuroMusk76 detailed, here are a few more…

This tweet from HungerFF doesn't mention vaccination, but after looking at the pics IMHO it should make people want to get vaccinated…

I've also seen guys mention they got vaccinated - which acknowledges the problem and makes it clear that vaccination is good.

There's a lot of example - but I can't put my finger on them right this very moment.

[rawTOP]

MPX deaths

There are now four MPX death deaths outside of Africa…

https://apple.news/AzHTxcszNTX64HgjpebLRGw

The first one in Brazil sounds like there were a lot of underlying conditions. But this last one in India sounds more serious - 22 years old with no external lesions.

 

Vaccines

The vaccine shortage in the US looks like it's gonna go on for months…

https://apple.news/AxgmmAkMsQ0mvyvwRCIsDMQ

So work hard to get your vaccine now, before they run out. And PLEASE delay your 2nd shot until after everyone has had their 1st shot.

They're also discussing giving people the older vaccine that has a lot more side effects.

 

Monkeypox's name

There's been a push to rename Monkeypox. Turns out that's complicated. The virus itself will probably continue to be known as Monkeypox, but the illness looks like it may get a new name at some point. One of the suggestions is hMPXV for human Monkeypox Virus. The problem with that is that I've already seen the clinic near me using MPXV for Monkeypox vaccine.  But it sounds like it'll take a while for the renaming to happen.

https://apple.news/AIBKMdYvaTnSvdT4OSQJQCw

 

(EDIT: the following bit is apparently fake news)

People not isolating

A doctor spotted a guy on the Madrid Metro with a pretty severe case of MPX. He approached the guy and asked why he wasn't isolating and the guy said his doctor just told him to wear a mask. Meanwhile there are visible sores all over uncovered parts his body and contact with sores is the easiest way to get MPX while respiratory droplets that the mask would stop are actually an unlikely route of transmission.

To make things worse, the woman who was near him said she wasn't worried because she's not gay.

https://apple.news/AtB59iR0kRD68IV34DrC5oA

So it looks like the word is not getting out about how to protect yourself or others.

[ErosWired]

16 hours ago, AlwaysOpen said:

Well, when I tried your formula ,I kept coming up with Pi are squared, and of course that could only mean rhubarb,

How curious. When I make rhubarb, it usually comes out as Pi are cubed.

[EricX]

53 minutes ago, ErosWired said:

How curious. When I make rhubarb, it usually comes out as Pi are cubed.

I’ve decided to isolate for a while and I will make an apple pie this fall…

[EricX]

1 hour ago, rawTOP said:

To make things worse, the woman who was near him said she wasn't worried because she's not gay.

Yikes!  I predict a MPX outbreak in the Bible Belt soon!

[rawTOP]

17 minutes ago, EricX said:

Yikes!  I predict a MPX outbreak in the Bible Belt soon!

All it takes is one closeted pastor, like Ted Haggard, going for a discreet weekend of fun and then coming back and "ministering" to the boys in his church and then they go and make out with their girlfriend…

[curiousaboutbb]

Yes I live in the Bible belt and good luck on finding vaccine information. I Called  my local health department and they said we don’t have that and didn’t know if they were gonna get any even though there is an outbreak in the county. Then I called the state and they don’t even understand their own literature that says if you’ve had multiple sex partners in an area with an outbreak then you should get the vaccine. Then again they don’t know when they’re gonna have it or how to go about getting it. It’s really sad that we are in this situation