fuckholedc Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, versPigaNdP said: did you do a series of non-linear differential equations to determine your information? vough cough cough No. This is not a SIR or variation model (I'm not modeling the dynamics of the outbreak itself with this). This is just taking the cumulative cases and fitting it to an exponential function (in this case a power function). That is *WRONG* but an adequate/even good estimate for the first stage of the epidemic (before the cases peak). A better estimate for this would be to induce a logistic function *BUT* that should only really be done when it is clear that the epidemic is really peaking (COVID showed us that our behavior created 6 separate peaks so far so we shouldn't jump the gun just because it looks like an epidemic is over). I have seen that people are not provided math tools to help protect themselves during epidemics (apparently even intelligent people [Fauci for example] think that math models are too much for people). Nonetheless I have seen even doctors who should know better make serious math errors over time and unfortunately many Gay men made serious errors wrt AIDS transmission and risk in public forums in the past. Edited July 30, 2022 by fuckholedc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricX Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 13 hours ago, muscmtl said: So 2 doses or 1 ? One dose provides immunity for a minimum of six months. A second dose will provide immunity for 2-5 years. I am referring to the JYNNEOS vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuckholedc Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 13 hours ago, muscmtl said: So 2 doses or 1 ? Ultimately two doses but currently many health providers are focusing on one dose for now and pushing the second dose down the road by several months or up to two years (the recommendation of the Bavarian Nordic manufacturer of Jynneos) because there is a shortage of vaccine. I have read that some providers are exploring the possibility that people > 50 might only receive one single vaccine as a booster. This will vary by country. The US and the UK stopped smallpox vaccination in 1972 and 1971 respectively. Germany OTOH stopped in 1976 and East Germany stopped in 1980. So in Germany the issue would be that people in their early 40's could in fact have some protection from the smallpox vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairyMTL Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 From Montreal here, got the vaccine a couple of months ago and no side effect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freshxtop5 Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 1 hour ago, fuckholedc said: Ultimately two doses but currently many health providers are focusing on one dose for now and pushing the second dose down the road by several months or up to two years (the recommendation of the Bavarian Nordic manufacturer of Jynneos) because there is a shortage of vaccine. I have read that some providers are exploring the possibility that people > 50 might only receive one single vaccine as a booster. This will vary by country. The US and the UK stopped smallpox vaccination in 1972 and 1971 respectively. Germany OTOH stopped in 1976 and East Germany stopped in 1980. So in Germany the issue would be that people in their early 40's could in fact have some protection from the smallpox vaccine. Here in LA county I got my first dose on 7/26/22 and have my second scheduled for 8/23/22. So here they are focusing on the double dose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawfuckr Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 Second death in Spain in Cordoba, Spain [think before following links] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2022-07-30/sanidad-confirma-la-segunda-muerte-en-espana-por-viruela-del-mono.html We got a few more details about the 2 deaths. Both were young, this last one 31. Both died due to encefalitis and were in hospital due to monkeypox infection. They are now looking into if encefalitis was caused by MP or was something unrelated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polyglutton Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 I got my vaccination a week ago and my immune response is still ongoing one week in. Low energy, headaches, and the injection site is still sore. I feel really lucky to get the vaccine, but I am surprised at how long the effects have been for me. It makes me wonder if I would have had a really bad case had I actually been infected. I appreciate being able to read the experiences of others here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hntnhole Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 4 hours ago, rawTOP said: Good news, kinda… The rate of increase for MPX cases in NYC is going down Good news indeed. The question though, is why? Are guys limiting their sexual escapades because of the risk? Are guys having the same amount, and the same 'type' of sex regardless of the monkey business? Until we know those answers, we don't really know all that much yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EuroMusk76 Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 17 hours ago, fuckholedc said: I induced a basic exponential function for monkeypox data from Germany (I cannot find historical data for Berlin itself) without the wild assumptions I had made prior to my trip to Montreal. Currently most of the monkeypox cases are occurring in Berlin but this will change if the outbreak isn't contained so currently this function is basically a Berlin function. Thank you for your estimation. You may be able to find more data on MPX ("Affenpocken" in German) on [think before following links] https://survstat.rki.de/Content/Query/Main.aspx There you can customise your query down to state (e.g. Berlin) or even county level (e.g. City of Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg), by week of notification and so on. It's a bit fiddly to use but a valuable source of information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 6 hours ago, fuckholedc said: No. This is not a SIR or variation model (I'm not modeling the dynamics of the outbreak itself with this). This is just taking the cumulative cases and fitting it to an exponential function (in this case a power function). That is *WRONG* but an adequate/even good estimate for the first stage of the epidemic (before the cases peak). A better estimate for this would be to induce a logistic function *BUT* that should only really be done when it is clear that the epidemic is really peaking (COVID showed us that our behavior created 6 separate peaks so far so we shouldn't jump the gun just because it looks like an epidemic is over). I have seen that people are not provided math tools to help protect themselves during epidemics (apparently even intelligent people [Fauci for example] think that math models are too much for people). Nonetheless I have seen even doctors who should know better make serious math errors over time and unfortunately many Gay men made serious errors wrt AIDS transmission and risk in public forums in the past. . . . that was me being a stupid funny smart ass . . . . I would much prefer to yank your pants down finding cum oozing out of your arse and slide my horny raw dick into your ass and hear you say thank you sir . . . please cum in my hot hungry hole sir . . . I need to feel your hot man juice pleasuring my horny arse sir evil grinz 😈 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators rawTOP Posted July 30, 2022 Administrators Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 2 hours ago, hntnhole said: Good news indeed. The question though, is why? Are guys limiting their sexual escapades because of the risk? Are guys having the same amount, and the same 'type' of sex regardless of the monkey business? Until we know those answers, we don't really know all that much yet. Hypothesizing… All the sex parties shut down (voluntarily). Guys know friend (or friends of friends) who got it and are going through long painful illnesses. Guys are seeing OF/JFF models describe what they're going through and urging them to get vaccinated. More guys are getting vaccinated. Most guys are just cutting back on sex generally. The guys who aren't cutting back are getting it and in too much pain to have sex. The other (less optimistic) reason might be that the 9.4% represented a getting through a backlog of tests (it was around the time additional labs were allowed to do the test). If that's the case then the percentage that week might be artificially high and it may not actually be going down. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuckholedc Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 5 hours ago, EuroMusk76 said: Thank you for your estimation. You may be able to find more data on MPX ("Affenpocken" in German) on [think before following links] [think before following links] https://survstat.rki.de/Content/Query/Main.aspx There you can customise your query down to state (e.g. Berlin) or even county level (e.g. City of Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg), by week of notification and so on. It's a bit fiddly to use but a valuable source of information. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuckholedc Posted July 30, 2022 Report Share Posted July 30, 2022 8 hours ago, rawfuckr said: Second death in Spain in Cordoba, Spain [think before following links] [think before following links] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2022-07-30/sanidad-confirma-la-segunda-muerte-en-espana-por-viruela-del-mono.html We got a few more details about the 2 deaths. Both were young, this last one 31. Both died due to encefalitis and were in hospital due to monkeypox infection. They are now looking into if encefalitis was caused by MP or was something unrelated. Encephalitis = brain inflamation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuckholedc Posted July 31, 2022 Report Share Posted July 31, 2022 On 7/25/2022 at 1:42 PM, pozboi said: Are there any studies on MPx virus's stability outside of a human body? How long does it survive for: hours, days, weeks, months? I mean how concerned should one be when, say, holding onto the bus handrail after someone with MPx hand lesions? This source says as long as 15 days. [think before following links] https://sf.gov/information/monkeypox-faq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuckholedc Posted July 31, 2022 Report Share Posted July 31, 2022 4 hours ago, rawTOP said: Guys are seeing OF/JFF models describe what they're going through and urging them to get vaccinated. Really? Has this begun to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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