Same old, same old .....

[BootmanLA]

2 hours ago, hntnhole said:

Good point.  What remains to be seen however, is the actual number of voters who will throw away their votes on one of them.  It may be that the 3rd-party voters think they're making a statement, but what they're actually doing is wasting their time and their vote.  There have always been "fringe" voters who presume themselves above the fray, and fool themselves into believing they stand for something "higher", or "more pressing" - the Greens, for instance - and they have a point.  However, when the Democracy itself (the governance that allows them to vote 3rd party in the first place) is on the block - as O.J. has said publicly in recent days - any wasted votes are truly missed.  

The question is not just how many third party candidates and how many votes they get, but who do they pull from?

In recent years, the big concern has been "leftists" (Nader, Stein) who have actually been funded in significant amounts by the right, to weaken the Democratic candidate. And that's still a problem - Stein's sticking her Russian-backed toe in the race again, and the billionaires funding "No Labels" absolutely want to take votes from Biden.

When RFK Jr. was talking about running in the Democratic primaries, he presented that same kind of threat - splinter the party during the primaries and hope it doesn't come back together again, which is why he was getting funding from the right to "explore" his candidacy. That's the same role Dean Phillips is now trying to play challenging Biden.

But RFK Jr. is now running as an Independent, and his base overlaps Trump's to a significant measure (especially the antiscience nutcase vote). So there's a chance he could pull enough votes away from Trump to hurt him, if only in a few states.

[ErosWired]

On 11/10/2023 at 12:15 PM, topblkmale said:

It's not a fact. It's observation.

Legacy media will be gone and irrelevant come 2032 election. Social media will be in a steep decline as well since its 100% 'woke' and far-left. New media will dominate later this decade.

I wouldn’t place any heavy bets on what kind of media is going to “dominate” in four or five years’ time, let alone a decade hence. ‘New Media’? It won’t be new then - something else will be jumping up and down waving for attention.

Given that social media is a broad, encompassing paradigm used by billions of people across every demographic, and has not only dedicated boards, forums, sites, even entire apps dedicated to right-leaning thought (‘Truth’ Social comes at once to mind) the suggestion that social media is going to fold because it’s all ‘woke’ and ‘left’ is absurd. One might point out that Facebook was founded in 2006 - seventeen years ago. That’s a millennium in internet years.

But if by ‘New Media’ you mean the frothing-at-the-mouth, propaganda-driven, hate-speech machine that some people are perverting our information systems into, my own prediction is that the bad actors will, sooner rather than later, take it one step too far (read: people are going to die) and society will find it’s had enough and rein it in.

Either way, Mr. Ramaswami cannot become more relevant in the future. In order to become more relevant, he would have to be relevant now. But really, his bug-eyed lunacy is beside the point. Frankly, if you believe the average white Anglo-Saxon protestant Christian American voter would actually cast a ballot for a man with a surname like Ramaswami, you’re just not paying attention. There are millions of Americans who would rather forego medical assistance than see a doctor with a name like Ramaswami. He has zero chance of becoming president, now or in a decade - the country’s simply too full of bigots.

 

 

[hntnhole]

17 hours ago, BootmanLA said:

but who do they pull from?

Yes, in the macro sense, I understand your point.  However, in this particular upcoming election, I think there is one urgent issue that many 3rd'ers will pay most attention to, and that's the issue of women's healthcare.  A few days ago the State elections that ostensibly were to deal with a number of issues fooled the residents of not one State.  

This upcoming (national) election cycle, there are millions of enraged women (and their supporters - like gay folks, students, for instance) that are determined to throw out the haters.  and I'll bet that there is a decent plurality of 3rd'ers who will eschew their particular "cause", and vote to restore the healthcare rights of women.  More, the breathtakingly shit-show in the House will only further inflame those who might be soft around the edges.  

I think the hard-core OJ crowd will gradually shrink somewhat - not into insignificance, but out of frustration.  He seems to be coming more and more unglued in recent clips, and no one wants to back an apparent loser.  The right-wing wants to dominate their opposition, and to the extent that OJ appears weaker and weaker as the lawsuits/penalties pile up, his apparent ability to follow through on his hateful agenda may fade.  Thus, the impact of the 3rd party voters would be diminished.  

All bets are off however, if Mr. Netanyahu manages to drag the U.S. into his war.  

[hntnhole]

11 hours ago, ErosWired said:

In order to become more relevant, he would have to be relevant now.

Agreed.  Since virtually anyone can run for President (within the parameters of being a citizen, etc.), nutcases like him have always been, and will aways be present in election cycles; we just don't pay a lot of attention to them.  The hotter the fire they breathe, the sooner they're consumed by it.  

[muscmtl]

Dwayne The Rock Johnson wants to run for president. fukn hope journalists won't stop arrasing him on his non stop steroids use. Would die to see a presidential debate where one of the candidate would give him a cup saying "urine sample please"

Love roids, the more roided the better for me, but dont push the "all natural" bullshit on us

[ellentonboy]

And I wake up this morning to hear that Mr. Scott, has ceased his campaign to become president.  What a surprise.  His response to questions during that last debate made my mouth drop.  Not that he was going to play a part in this process, and oh yes, we found out he had a "girlfriend" (beard).  The thing that made me laugh the most was that the article stated his entire staff was "caught off guard". Really?  With those kind of polling numbers?  I wonder where his 1 or2 percent will go? To Trump I suppose, or maybe someone more "religious" like DeSantis.  Certainly not that lunatic Ramaswami, because the majority of those "religious" individuals are far to racist to vote for him.

I just wonder how many will last till Iowa?  Probably DeSatan and Nicky, not sure about the other two. Christie seems to have some sense, though his opinions on unions and especially teachers unions made me distrust him even more.....

[hntnhole]

Yes, the Scott campaign has faded into history now.  One reason, as far as I see it, is his milquetoast version of delivering the same old R viewpoint, without the rancorous decibels of the clown standing next to him at the debate.  

When the audience (both in-house and the folks tuning in) is only interested in promulgating hate, division, dystopian visions of the US and it's future, small wonder his voice didn't break through.  I think he's basically trying to live a decent life, but not really cut out to plunge knives into the hearts of those he disagrees with.  I also think that if true (that his staff was caught off-guard), that's another fairly good reason he never gained much traction.  

DeathSantis believes in only one thing, and religious beliefs have nothing at all to do with it; he's as transparent as a freshly-washed window. 

I think that when (not if) Haley dispatches the noise-machine, she'll wind up on top of that heap-of-wannabe's.  She's got experience in government, she's quite able to outline her viewpoints, and she's got a pair of balls under that dress.  If it comes down to her and O.J., debating through the bars of a jail cell, I'll be enjoying that "debate" for sure.  I just hope the jailers get the precise shade of "arange" right.  

I don't see Christie as a serious candidate.  He's politically savvy, and I think he's just there trying to excise MagaBabble from his position as presumed R candidate.  

[BootmanLA]

10 hours ago, ellentonboy said:

I wonder where his 1 or2 percent will go? To Trump I suppose

What we're seeing now is much like what we saw in the late winter/early spring of 2016, when one by one, candidates dropped out and support for Trump consolidated. The only difference this time is there's a slightly larger "Anyone But Trump" contingent out there, but I don't think anyone believes it's enough to tilt the Republican primary base away from Trump. They're all either auditioning for VP or to be the "fall back" in case Trump is convicted in one or more of these cases and finds his support starts to crater.

7 hours ago, hntnhole said:

I think that when (not if) Haley dispatches the noise-machine, she'll wind up on top of that heap-of-wannabe's.  She's got experience in government, she's quite able to outline her viewpoints, and she's got a pair of balls under that dress.  If it comes down to her and O.J

I agree that Haley probably is the Ted Cruz of 2024, the alternate candidate with the most staying power. Even if otherwise she and RamaLamaDingDong were evenly matched, straight white Republican Christianist men will cut her more slack than they will Vivek, because there's a long tradition of them lusting after "exotic" women, and for at least some, they'll transfer that lust toward political support. But Nimarata and Vivek are not evenly matched; as noted, she's got experience in government, both as a governor and a state legislator, plus her experience as UN ambassador. That doesn't make her qualified to be, or even desirable as, president, but at least she's not the joke that Vivek or Mango Mussolini are.

But she's still got a huge uphill battle; she's got to be the "anti-Trump" without sparking too many questions about how she managed to stomach working for Trump if he's as bad a choice as she says; and if he's not as bad as the Democrats say, why is she opposing his return to office?

[hntnhole]

Just a bit of morning silliness .....

but I liked mango's up until just now ... I have a dwarf mango tree in the back yard, and they're sweet as can be ... and now I can't eat them anymore with that hellish connection being made.  

However, I will do my best to erase that mental picture, and continue to enjoy the mangos.  I have a starfruit tree too, so please don't mention anything about them.  

😀😄😊

 

[PozBearWI]

3 hours ago, hntnhole said:

Just a bit of morning silliness .....

but I liked mango's up until just now ... I have a dwarf mango tree in the back yard, and they're sweet as can be ... and now I can't eat them anymore with that hellish connection being made.  

However, I will do my best to erase that mental picture, and continue to enjoy the mangos.  I have a starfruit tree too, so please don't mention anything about them.  

😀😄😊

I just transfer that thinking to pumpkins rather than mangoes.  Not gonna fuck with my love for mango....  Off now to do the mango tango. 

 

[J-raw]

Wow, this is a great discussion! It's scary that people that don't like Trump would still vote for him if he's the nominee. That combined with the hardcore Trumpites could be a force to be reckon with for 'Sleepy Joe,' who is even more sleepy now. I expect low voter turn out in this election which favors Trump just like in 2016. If he's elected our already weakened institutions will come under graver threat, because Trump will return to office with a vengeance. Interesting to see whether Trump goes to jail or Biden dies in office at this point; both are possibilities. For shame for this country that we can't do better than Trump & Biden. 

[BBArchangel]

I don’t see Biden as “sleepy”at all. Maybe you’re just hooked on the “scandal-a-day” adrenaline rush that the Traitor Trump fed his sycophantic carnival followers every damned day 

[BootmanLA]

5 hours ago, J-raw said:

Wow, this is a great discussion! It's scary that people that don't like Trump would still vote for him if he's the nominee.

Plenty of Republicans did just that in 2020, and plenty more will do that in 2024. There's a growing chunk (>40%, I think) of the Republican Party who are so deep in the koolaid that they would vote for the bastard child of Stan and Adolf Hitler on a ticket with Ivan the Terrible, if they had an "R" behind their names. They're convinced of the insane "ideas" (i use the term loosely) like "Democrats are trying to turn over the country to the blood-drinking pedophile council of the New World Order, and they'll vote Republican till the day they die (and given what we've learned about the GOP's predilection for voting dead and incapacitated relatives, even afterward).

 

5 hours ago, J-raw said:

That combined with the hardcore Trumpites could be a force to be reckon with for 'Sleepy Joe,' who is even more sleepy now.

I see you've bought into the right-wing media narrative about Biden. He's only slightly older than Trump, but maintains a far more active schedule and actually works his job (as opposed to the hours of "Executive Time" Trump spent watching FoxNews and calling into radio and TV shows). He's certainly had a lot more travel of substance - and he doesn't skip out on things like a short walk to a WWII cemetery because of the rain.

5 hours ago, J-raw said:

I expect low voter turn out in this election

On what grounds? I'm not saying it can't happen, but I'm curious why you think this will be the case, when 2020's election was conducted under COVID restrictions and the issues - a megalomaniacal wannabe dictator against someone who supports Democracy - are basically the same. And this was before January 6 and before all the indictments have come down - I suspect there are at least some Trump voters who will just sit it out rather than vote for him (or worse in their minds, hold their noses and vote for a Democrat).

Additionally: Trump's vote skews older - much older - and we'll have had 4 years of older people dying and more younger voters replacing them; and unlike previous generations where young people turn more conservative as they hit their mid-30's, that's not happening in recent years. Possibly in part because wealth and income disparity has grown so large that many of these voters will never be able to buy a house or start a family, which are key factors in people becoming more conservative. All that greed at the top is coming home to roost for conservatives.

5 hours ago, J-raw said:

If he's elected our already weakened institutions will come under graver threat, because Trump will return to office with a vengeance. Interesting to see whether Trump goes to jail or Biden dies in office at this point; both are possibilities. For shame for this country that we can't do better than Trump & Biden. 

Agreed on the consequences of Trump returning to office. If Biden is re-elected and dies in office, his VP will take over, and I suspect policywise little will change. She may not have his skill at dealing with Congress, so that may be a limiting factor.

As for the choices: I would love a younger, activist, solidly progressive Democratic presidential candidate with widespread support and good name recognition. But we don't have one. Just like we go to war with the army we've got, we go to the ballot box with the candidates we've got. And Biden is several orders of magnitude better than Trump, no matter what issue(s) you judge them on.

[hntnhole]

5 hours ago, J-raw said:

who is even more sleepy now

Interesting comment there, J-raw. 

What is "sleepy" about the legislative victories he's responsible for?  He may appear to be "old", but that only means he's got a lot more experience than younger pols.  He knows Government far far better than the former President ever dreamed of.  Biden has delivered on his promises, with progressive projects across the board, and some in "red" states.  

Biden is "sleepier"?  I'll take "sleepy" any day over the self-centered, boorish, inveterately self-centered R (assumed) nominee, to the exclusion of any proposal to advance the country.  The behavior of the other party's presumptive nominee, whose only statements on his agenda are transforming the levers of Government into instruments of his personal vengeance, is despicable.   

[topblkmale]

On 11/10/2023 at 10:04 AM, topblkmale said:

This is the 2028 RNC pre-show. Vivek will be the only one relevant in 2028 as he is new media. No one under 50 years old watches FOX, MSNBC or CNN.

With the fourth RNC debate now over, Vivek is looking more like the 2028 front runner. ☑️